Wool forwards progress will wait on confirmation of offshore business

Michael Avery, Southern Aurora Markets, June 4, 2018

WOOL forward markets moved in line with the spot auction last week, but are expected to stagnate prior to auctions starting this week.

Spring levels on all micron rose 60 to 80 cents. The key 21 micron index traded solidly; breaking the 2000 cent barrier for September and maintained interest out into the New Year, with November and December trading at 1950 cents and February 2019 at 1910 cents. The 19 micron index traded out to August 2019 with June at 1955 cents and August at 1950 cents.

Interest waned a little as the week progressed as exporters assessed the increasing risk. We expect forward levels to be stagnant prior to the auction opening next week as exporters look for confirmation of offshore business into the spring.

Where to now, is the question on everyone’s mind. With high wool prices now a topic of mainstream media, the conservation has moved to how downstream processors and consumers will absorb the current rise. The continuing dry conditions will cap any concern in over supply. The extent of demand destruction at these levels will be the key to forecasting the likely trend into the spring and into 2019.

Anticipated levels next week

Month                                 19 micron             21 micron

June                                     2240 cents          2185 cents

July                                      2200 cents          2155 cents

Aug                                      2200 cents           2050 cents

Sept                                     2070 cents           2010 cents

Oct                                       2040 cents          1980 cents

Nov                                      2000 cents           1960 cents

Dec                                      1980 cents           1950 cents

Trade summary

June                      21 micron             2185 cents                         15 tonnes

July                       21 micron             2155 cents                            5 tonnes

August                  18.5 micron         2245/2275 cents                 6.5 tonnes

September          21 micron             1965/2005 cents                17.5 tonnes

October               18 micron             2250 cents                            2 tonnes

October               19 micron             2005 cents                             2.5 tonnes

October               21 micron             1975 cents                             8 tonnes

November           21 micron             1900/1950 cents                   5 tonnes

December           17 micron             2500 cents                             5 tonnes

December           18 micron             2225 cents                             2.5 tonnes

December           21 micron             1950 cents                            2.5 tonnes

Feb 2019              21 micron             1910 cents                           5 tonnes

June 2019            19 micron             1955 cents                        12 tonnes

Aug 2019             19 micron             1950 cents                            5 tonnes

Total 93.5 tonnes


Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Your comment will not appear until it has been moderated.
Contributions that contravene our Comments Policy will not be published.


Get Sheep Central's news headlines emailed to you -