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Wool forward market opens with renewed interest

by Michael Avery, Southern Aurora Wool, 17 August 2017

THE wool forward market opened with renewed interest from the bid side this week, with an offer sweep across the board ahead of the auction opening.

This momentum was maintained into Thursday with growers receiving some historically high hedge levels as the physical auction reached highs rarely seen as we head into spring.

Buyers paid up to 1900 cents for 19 microns and 1580 cents for 21 micron in the early spring. As grower volumes dried up in the nearby months, exporters searched for value in the New Year. The New Year trades were highlighted by 1800 cents for 19 micron in January and 1510 cents for 21 micron in February.

Trades pushed out into the 2018/19 season with 19 micron executed in August at 1705 cents and 1660 cents for March 2019. These represent the 90 and 85 percentile of prices respectively. October options traded at 30 cents for a 1580 cent strike on 21 microns.

Based on this week’s activity we anticipate the following trading ranges next week:

August                 21 micron                         1600-1620 cents

September          21 micron                         1550-1580 cents

October               21 micron                         1540-1560 cents

November           21 micron                         1500-1520 cents

December            21 micron                         1490-1500 cents

Jan to March       21 micron                         1450-1480 cents

April to June        21 micron                         1430-1460 cents

Trade summary

September           21 micron                        1555/1580 cents        42 tonnes

October                19 micron                        1850/1875 cents          7 tonnes

October                21 micron                        1550/1570 cents        11.5 tonnes

October                21 micron                        Put option 1580/30   10 tonnes

November            19 micron                        1800/1900 cents        11.5 tonnes

November            21 micron                        1485 cents                     2 tonnes

January                 19 micron                        1800 cents                     2.5 tonnes

February               21 micron                        1510 cents                     5 tonnes

April                      19 micron                         1750 cents                     2 tonnes

April                      21 micron                         1495 cents                     2 tonnes

June                      19 micron                         1750 cents                   10 tonnes

June                      21 micron                         1459/1460 cents        10 tonnes

August                 19 micron                          1705 cents                   11 tonnes

March 2019     19 micron                             1660 cents                  2.5 tonnes

Total 122.5 tonnes

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