June to August 2021 rainfall outlook:
Above average winter rainfall for much of northern, central and eastern Australia, but drier in western WA
RAINFALL for winter is likely to be above average for northern Western Australia, the Northern Territory, most of Queensland, New South Wales and South Australia, and northern parts of Victoria and Tasmania, with the chance of exceeding median greater than 60 percent.
Winter rainfall for western WA is likely to be below average (chance of exceeding the median is less than 40%).
The outlook pattern for June is similar to winter, with slightly lower chances of a drier month in western WA.
July to September also shows a similar outlook pattern to winter, with slightly lower chances of above average rainfall in most areas.
It should be noted that the northern Australian dry season commenced in May. This means tropical northern Australia typically has very low rainfall totals, and only a small amount of rainfall is needed to exceed the median.
June 2021 rainfall outlook:
July 2021 rainfall outlook:
‘First look’ July to September 2021 rainfall outlook:
Warmer days for northern tropics and southern Australia; warmer nights almost nationwide
Maximum temperatures for winter are likely to be warmer than average for tropical northern Australia, southern WA, south-east SA, eastern and southern NSW, Victoria and Tasmania (greater than 60% chance), with most of these areas very likely to have warmer winter days (greater than 80% chance). Elsewhere, there are roughly equal chances of warmer or cooler than average winter days (chance of exceeding the median is close to 50%).
June maximum temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for northern and south-west WA, the Top End of the NT, northern and eastern Queensland, eastern NSW, south-east SA, Victoria, and Tasmania (greater than 60% chance), with central parts of WA likely to be cooler than average (chances of exceeding the median are less than 40%).
Minimum temperatures for winter are very likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia (chances are greater than 80%); parts of western WA show a more neutral outlook.
Likewise, minimum temperatures for June, July, and July to September are each likely to be warmer than average almost nationwide except for western parts of WA.
Maximum temperature outlook June to Aug 2021:
Minimum temperature outlook June to Aug 2021:
Source: Bureau of Meteorology.
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Previous forecast versus actual rainfall
Maps below compare BOM’s rainfall forecast for March to May 2021, issued 25 February 2021, with actual rainfall recorded over the March to May 2021 period.
Forecast median rainfall March to May 2021:
Actual rainfall recorded March to May 2021:
Source: Bureau of Meteorology