Click on image to watch video presentation of the latest seasonal climate outlook.
Eastern Australia is forecast to experience a drier and warmer winter than normal this year, while southern Western Australia is expected to have a wetter and cooler season.
That’s according to the Seasonal Climate Outlook for June to August 2015, released by the Bureau of Meteorology this morning.
Winter is more likely to be drier than normal in southern and inland Queensland, northern and eastern NSW, eastern Victoria and western Tasmania.
The Bureau says a dry signal is also evident in the northern tropics, although it is seasonally dry in this region at this time of year.
A wetter-than-normal winter is likely for the southern half of WA.
Odds for above average winter totals are close to 50% for the remainder of the country (see map).
There are two main climate influences for the current outlook.
Elevated sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean, coupled with warm temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, are tending to enhance rainfall in WA. The El Niño pattern in the tropical Pacific is having a drying influence in the eastern half of the country.
Outlook accuracy for winter is moderate over the southern half of WA, and much of eastern Australia. However, in northern WA, central Australia and much of SA and Victoria, historical accuracy is low.
Source: Bureau of Meteorology