Click on image above to watch a video presentation of the rainfall and water outlook for the next three months

June-August 2019 rainfall outlook:

A dry winter likely in the east and parts of the south

BELOW average winter rainfall is likely for much of eastern Australia, south-eastern South Australia and WA’s southern coast.

While the dry signal extends further north, much of this area typically receives little or no rainfall at this time of year.

Historical outlook accuracy for June to August is moderate to high for most of the country but low in parts of south-east Australia and far northern Queensland.

June 2019 rainfall outlook:

July 2019 rainfall outlook:

Warmer than average winter days, but frosts possible

Warmer than average winter days are very likely for most of Australia except in far north Queensland.

Nights are also likely to be warmer than average overall; however, dry soils and the forecast for drier than average conditions could bring more cloud-free nights, increasing the risk of frost in susceptible areas.

Historical accuracy for winter for maximum temperatures is moderate to high across most of Australia, except parts of the interior and eastern NSW. Minimum temperature accuracy is moderate to high for most of the country, except parts of the south.

Minimum temperature outlook:

Maximum temperature outlook:

Source: BOM

Comparison – previous forecast versus actual rainfall

Maps below compare BOM’s rainfall forecast for February to April 2019, issued in January 2019, with actual rainfall deciles recorded over the February to April 201 period.

FORECAST MEDIAN RAINFALL FEBRUARY TO APRIL 2019:

RAINFALL DECILES RECORDED JANUARY to MARCH 2019:

Source: Bureau of Meteorology