Jul-Sep 2019 rainfall outlook:
Drier three months likely for many
A DRIER than average three months is likely for large parts of the country, extending from the northern Northern Territory, through Queensland and New South Wales, and into Victoria and south-east South Australia.
Western and central Western Australia and southeast Tasmania are also likely to have a drier three months.
For the month of July, the drier than average signal is confined to western WA, and central to eastern NSW extending up into southern Queensland. The rest of the country has roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average month. While the dry signal is widespread across the tropical north, much of this region typically receives little or no rainfall at this time of year.
Historical outlook accuracy for July to September is moderate to high for most of the country but low in parts of south-east Australia, far northern Queensland and in the Gascoyne region of WA.
July 2019 rainfall outlook:
August 2019 rainfall outlook:
Chance of exceeding 50mm during July-Sep
Warmer than average days and nights for northern and eastern Australia
July to September days are likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia. The exceptions are in southern WA, parts of northern Queensland, western Tasmania and the far southern mainland coasts, where there is no shift towards either warmer or cooler than average days.
Nights are also likely to be warmer than average for the northern half of Australia, eastern NSW, eastern Victoria and Tasmania. Much of the southern mainland has roughly equal chances of warmer or cooler nights. Dry soils and the forecast for drier than average conditions mean more cloud-free nights than average are likely, increasing the risk of frost in susceptible areas.
Historical accuracy for July to September maximum temperatures is moderate to high for most of Australia, except parts of the inland north, and parts of south-east Australia. Minimum temperature accuracy is moderate to high for most of Australia but generally low across southern and central WA and near the SA-NSW border.
Minimum temperature outlook:
Maximum temperature outlook:
Comparison – previous forecast versus actual rainfall
Maps below compare BOM’s rainfall forecast for March to May 2019, issued in February 2019, with actual rainfall deciles recorded over the Mar to May 2019 period.
FORECAST MEDIAN RAINFALL MARCH TO MAY 2019:
RAINFALL DECILES RECORDED MARCH TO MAY 2019:
Source: Bureau of Meteorology