Click on image above to watch video presentation of the latest three monthly seasonal climate outlook.
There is an increased chance of a drier three months over southern parts of southeast Australia, but an increased chance of a wetter three months over central and northern WA, as well as adjacent areas over the WA border, according to the latest Seasonal Climate Outlook statement released this morning.
Bureau forecasters say most of eastern Australia has a roughly equal chance of a wetter or drier July to September.
The current outlook reflects anomalously warm sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean and El Niño in the Pacific.
Historical outlook accuracy for July to September is moderate over most of Australia, except along the WA border, parts of SA, and areas surrounding the Gulf of Carpentaria, where accuracy is low.
Warmer nights likely for most of Australia
July to September days are likely to be warmer than average across the southern coastline of mainland Australia, Tasmania, and large parts of northern Australia. Overnight temperatures are likely to be warmer than normal for most of Australia, except for an area across the SA-NSW-Victorian border.
Significantly warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean, and those nearer to Australia are likely influencing the warmer overnight temperatures expected for much of the country.
Maximum temperature accuracy is moderate to high over most of Australia. Minimum temperature accuracy is moderate over the northern half of Australia and Tasmania, but generally low to very low elsewhere.
Source: Bureau of Meteorology
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