Weather

Seasonal climate outlook for August to October 2022

Bureau of Meteorology, July 29, 2022

August to October 2022 rainfall outlook:

Wetter August to October likely for most of Australia

THERE is a high chance — greater than 80 percent — of above median August to October rainfall for much of the eastern two-thirds of the mainland, with chances reducing gradually in the west, and tending to below median for western Tasmania and an area of south-western Western Australia.

Most of the eastern two-thirds of the mainland has more than double the normal chance of unusually high rainfall (in the wettest 20pc of all August–October periods over 1981–2018) rising to over triple the normal chance for parts of the tropics and scattered parts of the south-east.

It should be noted that May to September is the northern Australian dry season. This means most of tropical northern Australia typically has very low rainfall totals during this time (large areas less than 25 mm for the season), and only a small amount of rainfall is needed to exceed the median.

Past accuracy for August to October chance of above median rainfall outlooks issued at the end of July is high to very high for most of the eastern two-thirds of Australia, but low for inland southern and central WA.

September 2022 rainfall outlook:

 

‘First look’ September tp November 2022 rainfall outlook:

Warmer August to October days likely for north, west and south, cooler days for east and southern interior

Maximum temperature outlook:

August to October maximum temperatures are likely to be above median across the tropics, south-eastern SA, most of Victoria, all of Tasmania, and most of WA away from the south-eastern interior. Below median maximum temperatures are likely for the south-eastern quarter of Queensland and most of central-eastern and north-eastern NSW, extending across inland South Australia into south-east WA (chance of exceeding the median is less than 40pc).

There is more than double the normal chance of unusually high maximum temperatures (in the warmest 20pc of all August to October periods over 1981–2018) across most of the tropics, and Tasmania.

Minimum temperatures for August to October are very likely to be above median almost Australia wide, with a greater than 80pc chance for most parts.

There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures (in the warmest 20pc of all August to October periods over 1981–2018) for August to October across almost all of Australia, ranging from 1.5 times the normal chance for south-western WA, to greater than 3 times the normal chance across most of the east, and more than 4 times the normal chance for parts of the tropics.

Past accuracy for August to October chance of above median maximum temperature outlooks issued at the end of July is high to very high for almost all of Australia. For minimum temperatures, accuracy is high to very high for most of  Australia.

Source: Bureau of Meteorology. To view more outlook maps for coming weeks and months click here

Previous forecast versus actual rainfall

Maps below compare BOM’s rainfall forecast for April to June 2022, issued  31 March 2022, with actual rainfall recorded over the April to June 2022 period.

Forecast median rainfall April to June 2022:

 

Actual rainfall recorded April to June 2022:

 

Source: Bureau of Meteorology

 

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