Weather

Seasonal climate outlook – February to April 2024

Sheep Central, January 31, 2024

 

Drier than average February to April likely for northern and western Australia, and some southern regions

For February, rainfall is likely to very likely (60 percent to greater than 80 percent chance) to be below median for most of Australia, excluding south-east areas of Queensland, eastern NSW, eastern and southern Victoria, and Tasmania. However, the northern wet season is active so much of northern Australia typically has high rainfall at this time of year. This also applies to the February to April forecast.

For February to April, below average rainfall is likely (60pc to 80pc chance) for most of the northern Australia, extending into western WA, eastern SA, and far west parts of NSW and Victoria. There is not a consistent wet or dry signal for much of eastern Australia.

Unusually low rainfall for February to April is at least twice as likely for most of tropical northern Australia. Unusually low rainfall is defined as the driest 20% of October to December periods from 1981 to 2018.

Past accuracy of February to April long-range forecasts for the chance of above median rainfall is moderate to high for most of Australia, decreasing to low to very low for small areas in central and southern WA extending into SA, southern Queensland extending into NSW, and southern Tasmania.

Warmer February to April days and nights likely for most of Australia

For February, above median maximum temperatures are likely to very likely (60pc to greater than 80pc chance) for most of Australia, excluding southern SA, most of Victoria, and parts of western Tasmania.

For February to April, above median maximum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for almost all of Australia, excluding southern SA and most of Victoria.

For February, above median minimum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for large parts of Australia, excluding western and southern WA, most of SA and Victoria, western NSW, and far southern NT. Below median minimum temperatures are likely (60 to 80% chance) for southern SA.

For February to April, above median minimum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for almost all of Australia.

For February to April, most of Australia is at least 2 times more likely than normal to experience unusually high maximum temperatures, excluding: southern parts of SA, NSW and Tasmania; and Victoria. The chance of unusually high maximum temperatures increases to greater than 4 times more likely than normal for parts of northern WA, the Top End of the NT and Cape York Peninsula in Queensland. Unusually high temperatures are defined as the warmest 20% of February to April periods from 1981 to 2018.

For February to April, much of Australia is at least 2 times more likely than normal to experience unusually high minimum temperatures, except for some southern regions. The chance of unusually high minimum temperatures increases to greater than 4 times more likely than normal for most of northern Australia to the north of the tropic of Capricorn, extending parts of central WA. Unusually high temperatures are defined as the warmest 20% of February to April periods from 1981 to 2018.

Past accuracy of the February to April long-range forecast for chance of above median maximum temperatures has been high to very high for all of Australia. Past accuracy for the chance of above median minimum temperature has generally been moderate to high excluding some small areas of northern Australia.

Source: Bureau of Meteorology. To view this outlook in more detail on BOM’s website click here

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