Drier summer likely for northeast NSW and Gulf of Carpentaria, little signal elsewhere

The rainfall outlook for summer shows northeast NSW and regions surrounding the Gulf of Carpentaria are likely to be drier than average. Elsewhere across the country, there is no strong signal showing wetter or drier conditions for summer.

December is likely to be drier than average for parts of the WA coast, and areas surrounding the Gulf of Carpentaria and Cape York Peninsula.

Australia’s major climate drivers remain neutral. La Niña WATCH is currently in place due to recent cooling in the eastern tropical Pacific. However, sea surface temperature patterns in the western Pacific and eastern Indian Ocean are likely to counteract the typical (wetter) effects of a cooling Pacific Ocean.

Historical outlook accuracy for summer is moderate for eastern and western parts of Australia, but generally low elsewhere.

Temperature – The chance of above median maximum temperature for December to February

Summer daytime and overnight temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for most of the eastern two-thirds of Australia.

For December, parts of the north and most of the southeast are likely to have warmer than average days and nights. Overnight temperatures are also likely to be warmer than average in central Australia but cooler than average along parts of Queensland’s east coast.

Historical accuracy for maximum temperatures is moderate over most of Australia, except the southern NT, SA, Victoria and eastern NSW, where accuracy is low. Minimum temperature accuracy is moderate for most of Australia except the central NT and parts of the southeast.

Source: BOM