April to June 2021 rainfall outlook:
April likely to be wetter than average for parts of northern and south-eastern Australia
April to June is likely to be wetter than average (chance of exceeding median is more than 60 percent) across the tropical north of Australia, extending from northern WA across to northern Queensland. Remaining areas mostly show no significant shift towards a wetter or drier three months (chances of exceeding median is close to 50 percent).
The three-month wet signal is dominated by the April outlook, with April likely to be wetter than average across a similar area, including northern parts of WA, the NT, and Queensland, and also in the south-east across Tasmania, southeast SA, and patchy areas of Victoria. May, on the other hand, is likely to be a drier month for parts of northern and south-west Australia with the remainder of the country having roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average month.
The fortnight of 29 March to 11 April is likely to be wetter than average (chance of exceeding median is greater than 60%) over western and northern WA, the northern half of the NT, northern Queensland and most of Tasmania. Parts of the northern NT and Cape York Peninsula in Queensland are very likely to be wetter than average (greater than 80% chance). Parts of central Australia and western NSW extending into southern Queensland are likely to have a drier than average fortnight.
April 2021 rainfall outlook:
May 2021 rainfall outlook:
‘First look’ May to July 2021 outlook:
Warmer April–June days likely for west, north-east coast, and Tasmania; warmer nights except in the interior
Maximum temperatures for April to June are likely to be warmer than average for much of western WA, Tasmania, and parts of the Queensland, Victorian and SA coastlines (greater than 60% chance).
April days are likely to be cooler than average for northern WA, the NT, eastern SA, and across Queensland, NSW and Victoria away from the coastline (chance of exceeding the median is less than 40%). Warmer days are likely for much of the western and north-eastern Australian coastlines, and the Tasmanian coastline (greater than 60% chance).
Minimum temperatures for April to June are likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia (greater than 60% chance). However, south-east WA, the southern NT, most of SA, and southern NSW have roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average three months.
Maximum temperature outlook Mar to May 2021:
Minimum temperature outlook Mar to May 2021:
Source: Bureau of Meteorology.
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Previous forecast versus actual rainfall
Maps below compare BOM’s rainfall forecast for December 2020 to February 2021, issued 26 November 2020, with actual rainfall recorded over the December 2020 to February 2021 period.
Forecast median rainfall December 2020 to February 2021:
Actual rainfall recorded December 2020 to February 2021:
Source: Bureau of Meteorology