April-June 2020 rainfall outlook

Rainfall outlook for April to June 2020, issued March 26.

Wetter April to June for western and southern Australia

Rainfall outlook for April 2020

APRIL rainfall is likely to be above average for Western Australia, western and southern parts of the Northern Territory, South Australia, and scattered parts of southern Queensland, New South Wales  Victoria and Tasmania.

The chance of above average April rainfall is mostly 60-75 percent for these states and regions, although there is a greater than 75pc chance of above average falls in southern WA.

Drier than average conditions are likely in along parts of Queensland’s east coast — a 60-70pc chance).

The three months from April to June are likely to be wetter than average across WA, the western and southern NT, most of SA, western and central Victoria, and north-west Tasmania  — a 60-70pc chance and a greater than 70pc chance in southern WA). The northern Cape York Peninsula in Queensland is likely to be drier than average.

Rainfall outlook for May 2020

Similarly, May to July is likely to be wetter than average for much of western, central and southern Australia  — mostly a  60-70pc chance. However, accuracy is lower at this time of year, so some caution should be exercised when using this outlook.

The rainfall outlook suggests the autumn break for southern cropping regions may occur closer to its average time this year.

‘First look’ May to July rainfall outlook:

Warmer April to June likely for most of Australia

The fortnight of 30 March to 12 April is likely to be cooler than average across southern Australia, with temperatures more than 2 degrees Celsius cooler than average in southern SA extending into south-east WA. However, northern Australia is likely to be warmer than average.

Night-time temperatures for this fortnight are likely to remain average to warmer than average across the country.

Daytime temperatures for April to June are very likely to be above average across northern and eastern Australia  — greater than 80pc chance for most areas. Parts of southern WA, which may see more cloud and rainfall, are likely to have cooler than average days.

April to June night-time temperatures are very likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia  — a 60-80pc chance in the south-east and greater than 80pc chance elsewhere.

Chance of exceeding median minimum temperature

Source: Bureau of Meteorology. To view more outlook maps for coming weeks and months click here

Previous forecast versus actual rainfall

Maps below compare BOM’s rainfall forecast for December 2019 to February 2020, issued 28 November  2019, with actual rainfall recorded over the December 2019 to February 2020 period.

FORECAST MEDIAN RAINFALL DEC 2019 to FEB 2020:

ACTUAL RAIN RECORDED DEC 2019 to FEB 2020

Source: Bureau of Meteorology