Sheep grazing crop stubble in New Zealand. Image – B+LNZ.

NEW Zealand’s sheep flock is not expected to recover to its level before drought in key livestock regions added to the flock and cattle herd declines from land use conversion into forestry, according to Beef + Lamb New Zealand.

B+LNZ has released its annual Stock Number Survey, showing a notable decline in both sheep and cattle numbers as of 30 June 2024.

The NZ farmer-owned, industry organisation said flock and herd reductions follow significant decreases in the past couple of years.

While the primary driver in previous years has been land-use change as a result of the conversion of sheep and beef farms into forestry, this year’s primary driver was drought in key sheep and beef regions, Beef + Lamb NZ said.

Drought has led to farmers needing to destock, impacting the outlook for lamb production for the coming season.

Sheep numbers are estimated to have decreased by 4.3 percent, down to 23.31 million, with breeding ewe numbers falling by 2.9pc and trading sheep stock numbers fell 7.9pc. Farmers sought to maintain their breeding ewes and decreased their trading stock more, Beef + Lamb NZ said.

The decline in ewes and a lower expected lambing percentage, also caused by drought, means the lamb crop is anticipated to decrease by 4.8pc (970,000 head) on last year.

Beef cattle numbers are down 2.8pc overall, most significantly in the South Island, where drought led to a 7.1pc decrease, while the North Island is relatively steady, down 0.8pc.

B+LNZ chair Kate Acland said this year has been particularly tough for sheep and beef farmers.

“The combination of drought across many parts of the country, high costs, and low sheep prices and has put immense pressure on farmers.

“Farmers are facing tough decisions on their farms, with many having to sell off capital livestock not only due to drought but for cashflow reasons,” she said.

“This will not only affect their income this year but will also have long-term implications for future profitability.”

The B+LNZ report indicates that while there may be a partial rebuild of stock numbers in some regions in the coming season, the full recovery of sheep numbers to pre-drought levels is unlikely, due to ongoing land use change into carbon forestry. The number of beef cattle may recover more quickly as prices have remained strong for beef and farmers have been switching from sheep to cattle.

B+LNZ said the early destocking, lower stock numbers overall and current desire to rebuild livestock (in regions impacted by adverse weather events) is contributing to a shortage of animals available for processing. This is exacerbated by lower bull numbers due to less calves reared two years ago, when profit margins were low.

Ms Acland said the challenges of the last few years are likely to have wide-ranging and lasting repercussions.

“The long-term decline in stock numbers is concerning, it directly impacts the ongoing sustainability of farming and rural communities.

“Our sector is an economic powerhouse, generating significant export revenue and supporting the livelihoods of thousands of Kiwis across the country, so these impacts will be felt by the whole economy,” she said.

Ms Acland said B+LNZ has recently strengthened its strategic focus to sit more strongly behind the farm gate, focussing on issues that farmers can control that directly impact productivity and profitability.

“While current conditions are tough, the medium-term outlook remains positive, we’ve weathered downturns before, and I remain optimistic about the future.

“Worldwide demand for high-quality sustainably produced protein is growing and New Zealand is well placed to fill this demand,” she said.

Top read the full Stock Number Survey report click here.

Source – Beef + Lamb NZ.