AUSTRALIA’S sheep flock peaked at 79.1 million this year, but is expected to fall to 74 million in 2026, according to the latest Meat & Livestock Australia estimates.

The MLA said the national sheep flock reached 79.1 million head in June, the largest figure since 2007.

This follows four consecutive years of flock recovery and expansion and has been matched by increasingly high slaughter and production numbers, reaching new record highs in 2023.

However, the flock is expected to ease 2.7 percent in 2025 to 76.9 million head, and a further 3.8pc to just above 74 million head in 2026.

Meat & Livestock Australia yesterday released the mid-year Cattle Industry and Sheep Industry projections and tomorrow will hold a Sheep Projections Webinar at 10am (AEST) to discuss and break down the findings. Click here to register for the webinar.

Sheep producers moving away from Merinos – MLA

MLA senior market information analyst Erin Lukey said producers are moving away from Merinos and wool producing breeds, and the recent adoption of shedding breeds has meant industry is shifting to a stronger turn-off rate from a smaller base.

“This means despite a projected flock constriction; the flock will not fall below the 10-year average of 70.3 million.”

ABS still not ready to estimate the flock

The latest MLA sheep flock figures have come as the Australian Bureau of Statistics says its estimates are still in development and are not expected to be available until 2025.

An ABS spokesperson said an information paper released in October this year with more detail about timing and the context of these next releases.

The ABS has said it is working on a method to estimate the number of sheep in Australia that will replace the previous survey estimates. It is intended that this will use a similar stock and flow approach to that used for estimating the cattle herd recognising there are a multiple estimation differences between sheep and cattle.

The ABS’ next flock estimate will be for June 30, 2024, but will also include a back series that will cover June 30, 2023, and earlier years. The bureau does expect its sheep flock estimates to change as significantly as it did for cattle herd.

Lamb slaughter to lift

MLA said lamb slaughter is forecast to lift on last year’s record to 27.7 million head. This is an increase of 11pc or a further processing of 2.7 million head. This would reaffirm 2024 as the largest year on record for lamb slaughter.

Sheep slaughter will remain strong in 2024, lifting 3pc to 10 million head. In the following year, industry is expected to move to turn-off their relatively elevated breeding ewe and wether flock, lifting sheep slaughter 13pc to 11.3 million head in 2025.

MLA said sheep meat production will follow slaughter trends. Lamb production expected to lift 11pc in 2024 to a record 665,000 tonnes, and mutton production lifting over the three years to 289,000 tonnes by 2026, its highest volume since 2001.

Sources – MLA, ABS.