RMA Network CEO Chris Howie.

THE tipping points for the lamb and cattle markets are getting closer, with the current supply and demand pivot point seeming to be very finely balanced at present.

Prices are moving incrementally dependent on offerings, but we are not seeing any big shifts.

The potential cyclone rain in the north and the continued dry in the south both indicate at some time supply will shorten very quickly.

Every year we say “where are the numbers,” but they keep coming. However, the mid-winter supply hole that is becoming evident is now being spoken about openly by feedlots and processors in the southern states. In my opinion, these open discussions help activate those with feed to look at weight gain and supply with price moving with you. Opportunity.

Having the skill to estimate dressing percentage

Over the years, the term “dressing percentage” has been bandied around in regard to lambs, sheep and cattle. At a training session recently we incorporated estimating liveweight and then estimating the dressing percentage within a training group at a processing plant.

What surprised us was the survey understanding level went down not up afterwards. In most training the desire is to improve from start to finish. I don’t think this was a bad thing, as it identified the ability to estimate dressing percentages over the years has eroded. Even though we are weighing everything it seems only a few are using the kill sheet to calculate the dressing percentage after the event.

A question was asked, “how do you know it will dress at that percentage”? The answer from the older agents was “we did the math on the kill sheet and compared the stock type, condition, season and processor.” Over time this allows an assessment to be made with a glance and a quick handle of the stock. It is learnt over time and experience not from a book. Weighing so many should make this learning experience very easy with the second part completed – the kill sheet analysis.

So why is it important to have this skill set? In simple terms it allows you to assess livestock heading to slaughter in a way that allows you to hit the correct part of the grid. Understanding how seasonal conditions and curfew can change this percentage means it is important to collect the data and do the math.

Just because a first cross lamb weighs 55 kilos doesn’t mean it will dress at 24.75kg. We need to look at the wool, condition score and type of feed it is on. A “slabby or dry” draft of lambs that was calculated at 45 percent may only do 43pc = 23.65kg. You now have 30pc of the consignment falling outside of the export box and receiving less money.

The same with cattle on fresh green feed. They may look good, but the fat hasn’t hardened and by the time they get to works the “green squirt” has seen the pins come up and the dressing percentage go down. It is similar for feedlots that pull cattle out early to fill a load; dressing percentage falls which is reflected in carcase weight. This means you have under-capitalised the investment in that animal to save sending a light load — poor business.

All I suggest is for every load consigned over hooks the dressing percentage should be worked out by the vendor and the agent based on previous years or area comparison, not a guess to make the number look right – rose coloured glasses and all. Too many times I have seen a processor blamed for a poor result that went back to the original calculation being over estimated; e.g. plain old Merino ewes in the middle of January will not do 41pc.

Don’t get me wrong, we know there are variances between works that align to the end user markets.

However, the only fair way to compare different processors is split a mob and send it two ways at the same time, otherwise it is just uninformed pub talk that does no one any good.

Stock water to become sheep supply issue

All the sheep saleyard centres are reporting the same make-up in their yardings; some well-finished grain-fed lambs, a lane of not bad Merinos with a bit of skin, then plenty of secondary not quite finished and stores.

I have watched the lamb feeder weights gradually go up with most chasing 38–50kg and some money floating for second cross store lambs at $3.50-$3.80/kg liveweight. The general consensus is after Easter quality supply in the south will be an issue. Not because the money isn’t right, but stock water is becoming a serious issue over so many areas.

Most agents are receiving calls from processors to discuss available numbers and delivery windows. With the continued sell down this may put the sheep industry back into the boom and bust cycle with young breeders becoming a premium article after any form of break.

In Western Australia, Clint Wardle at West Coast Rural and Dean Hubbard at AWN have plenty of scanned in-lamb ewes coming onto the market. Paul Kilby from Kilby Stock and Station in South Australia is saying the same. As we know, taking the plunge to buy SIL ewes at this time of the year does require some constitution, but the end result with a rain can pay big dividends after a period of destocking.

Cattle – Lardner Park steer trial a great achievement

In June 2025, the Lardner Park – Grass Fed Steer Trial, will celebrate its 50th anniversary with a theme of “50 Pairs for 50 Years.”

This a one-of-a-kind competition is looking to attract additional breeders to benchmark their breeds against some of the best in the country. It is an excellent opportunity for breeders to have a crack without the show ring preparation. Competitors receive valuable information after weigh-ins about 35 days apart, adding real time performance data to the competition.

The competition is supported by a wide range of sponsors, including long-term board member from agency Alex Scott and Staff, livestock manager Neil Darby, and underpinned by the Coles grass fed program national livestock manager for red meat, Stephen Rennie, using the processing expertise of JBS to provide uniform carcase data.

The trial’s awards will be presented for various categories such as the combined weight gain and carcase award, highest weight gain pair, and highest eating quality (MSA Index) as a pair. These epitomize its commitment to recognizing excellence across multiple dimensions of beef production. Such accolades not only honour individual accomplishments, but also inspire a collective push for quality and sustainability. Give a couple of steers to the kids and get involved.

Beef weaner sales continue

Every year the weaner sales progress up the east coast with the next run ready to start, with big yardings of well-bred calves from Tasmania to Glen Innes and Casino in northern NSW inclusive of Carcoar, Barnawartha, Yass, Wagga, Cooma, Inverell, Moss Vale, Gunnedah, Dunedoo, Dubbo and the recently completed sales at Ballarat, Omeo, Ensay and Benambra. Many of these weaners had an easier start than the Southern calves and from experience weight for age will be exceptional. Potential from summer storm Albert in Queensland suggests doing your homework on where you want to buy sooner not later.

Will Dixon from Monaro Livestock and Property said with a lean spring and dry summer this year’s run of weaners will be a bit lighter than the last two years. The breeding will still see these cattle perform and Will expects to yard 3000 with his sale on 2 April. North of Cooma is dry, south is patchy and Bombala has got a start although in most areas the season is running away and looking for a break.

Nick Hall of Adcock Partners, Walcha said the northern tablelands have pinched up in the last two weeks to add to the dry areas on the western slopes. However, enquiry for cattle is strong, with 300-340kg models forming the main demand at present. Like many from the New England and southern Queensland, all are waiting to see if the forecast rainfall from the storm eventuates. If it does the sowing of winter grazing crops will be enormous in this area. Further south through Coolah and Dunedoo the season is good with PTIC females the order of the day.

Elders livestock manager at Bairnsdale, Morgan Davies, reported the annual Mountain calf sales at Omeo, Benambra and Ensay as yarding 7500-8000. Calves captured the reward of the continued strong northern competition. With the Omeo season being difficult and Ensay being good, all grades of cattle were represented. Light spring drop calves of 200kg garnered tremendous support that had been lacking the last couple of years. Many northern bidders rolled the dice on northern rain and used this sale to capture larger lines with the light calves leading the charge. Buying either side of $1000 per head made the trade in on bullocks sold very good business. 200-250kg Angus topped at $5.28/kg+ Angus $4.15-$4.50/kg and the Hereford and cross weaners $3.90-$4.30/kg.

Colin Say and Co principal, Shad Bailey, at Glen Innes said the tableland weaners sales are ready to go mid-March. Casino ran with an early sale on the back of a wet summer as an early sighter and now the numbers are beginning to appear. Pricing seems to be $4-$4.50/kg on the 280-350kg models. Weights are on par to past sales with the odd heavier drafts. From experience the quality genetics used in the New England, Western Slopes and Northern Rivers provides opportunity for excellent runs of 280-400kg cattle. Shad said the forecast rain will determine numbers, but if for some reason it doesn’t appear we may see additional entries – especially heifers.

Northern NSW feeders have remained relatively stable with Angus steers $3.80-$4.10/kg and cross breds $3.60-$3.75/kg . Scott Creek at Creek Livestock Mt Gambier said the southern feeders prices are hovering at $3.95-$4.05/kg for blacks and $3.50-$3.60 for colours, with saleyards reflecting the same values. Several agents that manage some significant grain fed programs said the availability of custom feeding pen space has tightened considerably in the last two months. As mentioned in many articles, the number of cattle on feed is going to be the shock absorber for quality grass cattle supply in the south.

Steve Gaff at Red Centre Rural, Alice Springs, let me know the Alice Springs agents will hold a sale on the 3 April. It has been hot and dry and the turnoff has started earlier than normal. With 2500 already booked I expect numbers will grow and make it a very worthwhile drive. For some reason the small beer after an Alice Springs sale always tastes better.

Feed and water

If for some reason you have excess of either there is plenty of enquiry to help keep breeding flocks and herds intact until the break. Pick up the phone and make yourself known; it will be a good little cash injection for your enterprise also.

Book early for industry events

The event calendar seems to be very busy from March to June with plenty happening around the place.

Just looking at a few it seems all parts of the livestock and wool industry are being catered for. Not only are these positive for industry, but they are good for your own mental health just to listen to something other than the country hour and catch up with some old mates.

Inspire 300+ at Wodonga runs on 27 March, celebrating 300 participants of the Wodonga TAFE Agency and Supply Chain training. Registrations are open for those looking to attend or catch up with old mates. Register now for a great evening.

The Sheep Expo in South Australia runs from 14-16 April. It was inspired by the highly successful SA Junior heifer Expo and provides an education forum for young sheep enthusiasts aged 12-23 years, to enable them to build their knowledge and identify career pathways in the sheep industry.

The Angus Expo at Tamworth kicks off on 3-4 May as part of the 2025 Neogen World Angus Forum and will feature the largest display of registered Angus cattle in the Southern Hemisphere and a comprehensive list of speakers, innovation and events at the Tamworth equine centre.

Ladies Day at Monto in Queensland is on 31 May. It was a big social hit last year with Kellco Agencies, Louisa Bambling helping create a Mexican fiesta-themed event with Olympic swimming star Brooke Hanson OLY OAM as the key note speaker. Book early to avoid disappointment.

Opportunities

 Lucerne flats – make them work with improver lambs.

 PTIC heifers and cows

 SIL ewes (only with sound mouths)

 Clean dams out and get ready for the next dry now.

 Keep taking the money when stock are ready to go.

 Weight is king at this time of the year

 Keep training staff – tell your boss to train you too.