Wool Market Reports

Forward wool marketing stabilises as auction market steadies

Michael Avery, Southern Aurora Markets partner, November 27, 2020

FORWARD wool trading stabilised this week as the physical auction market steadied after weeks of volatility.

It was a different sort of week for the wool market and for once we don’t have to talk about volatility.

The spot auction market remained steady, with a slightly weaker bias influenced by a strengthening Australian dollar against the US currency.

The AWEX Eastern market Indicator has traded unchanged at US845 cents for the latest three auction days. This is something we haven’t seen all season and rarely in the last two years. The Australian dollar seems to be heading higher in the short to medium term at least against US currency.

The forwards have also remained stable for the last two weeks’ trading, with 19 micron at 1365/1370 cents out to February 2021. The range for the month has been 1320 to 1425 cents, so we seem to be settling at the mid-point at the moment. Current bidding supports this, with light volume on the bid for 19 micron at 1370 cents throughout January and February.

Sellers appear to be lining up just above the high point of the recent trading range. December offered 1445 cents, January 1430 cents, and February 1430 cents out to May at 1450 cents.

We move into the last three weeks of auction sales for 2020 with everyone happy to see the back end of a year that delivered challenges on every front. Traditionally the spot wool market has a slight stronger leaning in December, as processors stock for the three-week recess. This year has taught us to expect the unexpected.

We expect hedging opportunities early in the week at cash from 18 micron through to 21 micron in January and February. Exporters and processors will probably need stronger demand signals before shifting outside the current tight range.

Indicative trading levels next week

19 micron                  21 micron

December                                                                    1370 cents                            1170 cents

January/February                                                       1370 cents                            1120 cents

March/April                                                                 1320 cents                            1120 cents

May/June                                                                     1320 cents                            1120 cents

This week’s trades

December 21 micron                                     1170 cents                            10 tonnes

January 19 micron                                          1370 cents                            5 tonnes

January 21 micron                                          1170 cents                            5 tonnes

TOTAL                                                                                                            20 tonnes


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