THE NORTHERN barley harvest is gathering pace and putting pressure on nearby prices as grower selling increases, but wheat trading remains thin.

In the south, perceived damage caused by recent frost on an already moisture-stressed crop has stymied prompt and new-crop business as this week’s rain-bearing front again delivers minimal falls to most districts.

While consumers in the north are extending coverage for coming months, those in the south are having little luck booking volume from the trade or the grower as both quality and volume concerns loom large.

	Prompt	Sep 19	New crop	Sep 19
Barley Downs	$290	$320	$305	$302
ASW Downs	$335	$335	$330	$333
Sorghum Downs	$335	$335	$318	$330
Barley Melbourne	$325	$315	$320	$315
ASW Melbourne	$350	$340	$360	$348

Table 1: Indicative prices in Australian dollars per tonne.

Harvest pressure builds in north

Early barley and chickpea crops are being harvested in Central and southern Queensland, with yields either as expected or a little below.

While crops in the Golden Triangle region of northern New South Wales, and out to Mungindi and north into the Queensland border area are looking at a bumper season, others have dropped back to average or slightly above.

Early Qld barley crops are generally yielding 3-5t/ha, and the upside will increase as harvest moves east on to the heavier soils of the Central Downs in the next week or two.

“The southern Qld cereal crop is beautiful,” one trader said.

Good volume and quality from new crop has growers with old-crop stored on farm ready to meet the market, which has depressed prompt values.

“We’ve got old-crop wheat, barley and sorghum coming out of the woodwork,” another trader said.

Barley prices have fallen to such an extent that it is buying itself some demand.

“If we’re seeing this $40-$50 difference between wheat and barley, barley is looking cheap against wheat.”

CQ sorghum harvested in recent months is being sold for around $275/t on farm, largely so growers have space to store chickpeas if they decide not to deliver to port, packer or bulk depot straight off the header.

Crops on the slopes of NSW from around Forbes north to the Qld border are on track for above-average yields, but frost has had some impact from around Greenethorpe south.

At Grenfell, trader Brent Ray said canola looks to have been the crop most affected.

“Grower selling has stopped; they’re not happy with the price, and their input costs are so high, they want more than what they’re seeing at the moment,” Mr Ray said.

Time running out in south

A run of fronts has delivered less rain than initially forecast, and many crops in the Victorian Mallee, south-west NSW and much of South Australia are quickly losing yield potential.

Around 10pc of the total winter crop, including area cut for hay, may have been lost frost and/or dry conditions over the entire region in the past two weeks.

 

This week’s highly anticipated rain event has been a patchy one, and has missed many thirsty crops altogether in the key farming areas of the Mallee and Wimmera.

However, some handy falls have been recorded across the state’s western half, including: Derrinallum 19mm; Hamilton 26mm; Mortlake 15mm; St Arnaud 9mm, and Ultima 12mm.

In SA, most crops received 5mm at best if anything, with better falls being: Bute 8mm; Coulta and Lucindale 11mm, and Padthaway 14mm.

The bright spot is pulses, some of which are reflowering on stored soil moisture and/or recent light rain.

A considerable amount of frosted canola in southern NSW west of the Olympic Way and south of Wagga Wagga is being cut for hay, and some wheat area is likely to be dropped once frost damage can be fully ascertained.

“It felt like it might have rained on Tuesday…but it just didn’t happen,” GeoCommodities Victorian broker Brad Knight said.

“There’s no liquidity in grower land.”

Crops in central Vic and the Goulburn Valley are generally in good shape, but will need a finishing rain to maximise their yield potential, and the outlook for crops in parts of south-west Vic has improved after recent rain.

Mr Knight said the bid-offer spread was “huge” based on very different outlooks held by growers and consumers.

“The scenarios are (new-crop) supply dwindling by the day, and there being plenty of supply around in the nearby.”

He said mixed farmers were looking at stored grain and new crop as something they might keep themselves to feed livestock, or as seed for next year.

The Grain Industry Association of Victoria’s annual crop tour involves yield estimations and will take place in mid-October.

Mr Knight said the dry end to the growing season could well mean some crops are being harvested ahead of the normal timeframe, and an actual rather than forecast yield figure may be available to GIAV tour participants.

Some crops in the Vic Mallee and parts of SA are already being cut for hay.

 

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