The Bureau of Meteorology’s latest three month climate outlook statement indicates October to December rainfall is likely to be below median for much of Australia.

For October, below median rainfall is likely to very likely (60 percent to greater than 80 percent chance) for most of Australia, apart from north-western WA and southern Tasmania.

October to December rainfall is likely (60pc to 80pc chance) to be below median for much of Australia excluding most of central and northwestern WA and south-west Tasmania.

October to December rainfall outlook

Unusually low rainfall for October to December is at least twice as likely for parts of southern, eastern, and northern Australia. Unusually low rainfall equates to the driest 20pc of October to December periods from 1981 to 2018.

Past accuracy of October to December long-range forecasts for the chance of above median rainfall is moderate to very high for most of Australia, decreasing to low to very low for south-western and interior WA, south-western NT and north-western SA.

November to January rainfall outlook

Warmer than median October to December

For October to December, above median maximum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80pc chance) for almost all of Australia.

For October to December, most of Australia is at least three times likely to experience unusually high maximum temperatures, with chances increasing to more than four times likely for most of WA, southern Queensland, and northern NSW.

Unusually high maximum temperatures equate to the warmest 20pc of October to December periods from 1981 to 2018.

Chance of exceeding median maximum temperature October to November

For October, above median minimum temperatures are likely (60pc to 80pc chance) for Tasmania, southern and eastern Victoria, eastern and northern NSW, southern Queensland and southern and western WA, increasing to very likely (greater than 80pc chance) for the rest of WA. Below median minimum temperatures are likely for some northern tropical regions and eastern SA.

For October to December, minimum temperatures are likely to very likely (60pc to greater than 80% chance) for almost all of Australia apart from south-east SA, and a small area of Queensland’s North Tropical Coast.

For October to December, broad areas of Australia are at least twice likely to experience unusually high minimum temperatures, with chances increasing to more than fourtimes likely for parts of central WA, southern Queensland, and northeastern NSW. Unusually high minimum temperatures equate to the warmest 20% of October to December periods from 1981 to 2018.

Chance of exceeding mediam minimum temperature October to December

Past accuracy of the October to December long-range forecast for chance of above median maximum temperatures has been high to very high across almost all of Australia. For minimum temperatures, accuracy is high to very high for most of Australia, dropping to low to moderate for a small region of north-western Australia.

Source: Bureau of Meteorology