Buoyant wool auction trend feeds into forward trading

Michael Avery, Southern Aurora Markets partner, January 22, 2021

IT was an interesting week for the wool market, with the solid opening to the New Year physical auctions last week expected to be tested.

Another 50,000-bale roster, a high Australian dollar, irregular demand and pending Chinese New Year were all seen as head winds for the market.

Against that backdrop, prices were strong across all sectors this week, with the fine wools particularly buoyant.

The 17 and 18 micron types rose steadily across the three days of sales, gaining momentum to close the week significantly higher — 17 micron was up 100 cents and 18 micron up 60 cents. In general, the rest of the Merino qualities and the crossbreds started the week softer, but closed on a better tone.

This pattern feed into the forward markets. The early trade and bidding on Monday and Tuesday were subdued with 19 micron contract trading at 1390 cents for March, 40 cents off last week’s high. Bidding picked up as the week progressed, with prices higher and maturities expanding out to June 2022.

The forward market closed the week bid at strong premiums for Summer and Autumn 2021 and with premiums into Spring 2021. The first half of 2022 was also bid at a premium for the 19 and 21 micron contracts, presenting growers with long term maturities not seen for a considerable time and a forward curve in carry.

Indicative trading levels next week

18 micron    18.5 micron    19 micron    21 micron    28 micron

Closing spot in south only              1693 cents   1561 cents       1428 cents    1169 cents   483 cents

Feb                                                      1700 cents    1570 cents       1440 cents   1180 cents   488 cents

March/April                                      1700 cents    1570 cents       1440 cents   1180 cents   488 cents

May/June                                          1700 cents    1570 cents     1440 cents    1180 cents   488 cents

Sept/Oct                                                                                               1430 cents    1170 cents

Nov/Dec                                                                                               1430 cents    1170 cents

Jan to June 2022                                                                                 1430 cents    1170 cents

This week’s trades

March 19 micron                              1390 cents          5 tonnes

Source – Southern Aurora Markets.


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