Auction market issues reflected in wool forward trading

Michael Avery, Southern Aurora Wool September 22, 2017

THE wool market struggled at auction this week, with all micron groups losing ground as buyers continued to be concerned about finding business off-shore at these levels.

Finer microns lost up to 20 cents while medium microns tried to hold their prices. This was reflected in the forward market.

The 21 microns traded November and December near cash — 1530 to 1540 cents — but few growers took the opportunity to lock in certainty over summer production. Bids on the finer microns retreated, in line with the auction, as the week progressed.

Volatility in the currency saw the A$ trade in an almost two-cent range, adding to the uncertainty for exporters. Buyers and sellers are looking for direction in a market that been on a rollercoaster since the return from the break.

The 19 microns opened the season at 1838 cents, rose 89 cents in two weeks to then lose 102 cents in the next two weeks. They rose 23 cents to retrace 69 cents to 1784 cents, 54 cents under the season open.

The movement in 21 micron has been a little less dramatic to the downside but still volatile. Opening the season at 1534 then market rose 131 cents, then gave back 83 cents. The market steadied between 1580 and 1590 cents, before giving up 44 cents last week to finish at 1549 cents, 15 cents above the season opening.

We end the week, particularly for 21 microns, surprisingly steady for the balance of the year and into January and February, considering the last six week’s movement.

Seven-year percentile bands

18 micron       90pc     2120 cents     95pc     2050 cents

18.5 micron    90pc     1870 cents     95pc     1950 cents

19 micron       90pc     1700 cents     95pc     1830 cents

20 micron       90pc     1504 cents     95pc     1587 cents

21 micron       90pc     1430 cents     95pc     1485 cents

28 micron       85pc       800 cents     95pc       870 cents

Anticipated trading levels next week

18.5 micron           19 micron          21 micron

October          1920                       1750                   1530

November      1910                       1750                   1530

December       1900                      1750                    1530

Jan to March  1890                      1730                    1490

April to June   1870                      1720                    1470

Trade summary

November      21 micron        1530/1540 cents        20 tonnes

December      21 micron        1540 cents                    4.5 tonnes

Total 24.5 tonnes


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