RAIN over the long weekend brought some relief to Victoria’s western districts and pockets of western New South Wales, but fell short of the widespread break forecast by the Bureau of Meteorology.

South Australia, along with parts of Victoria and southern New South Wales, missed the recent rain, but that hasn’t deterred some growers from pressing ahead with dry sowing wheat and other crops.

As dry conditions persist across the south and on-farm feeding remains viable, growers are continuing to hold onto old crop wheat and barley.

In northern NSW and Queensland, winter crop planting is progressing, with the exception of areas that recorded rain over the long weekend.

Selling has gained momentum in the north on the back of promising new crop prospects, though many growers appear to be holding off on major marketing decisions until the new financial year.

Table 1: Indicative prices in Australian dollars per tonne.

Increased selling in north

The northern growing regions received decent falls during the past week, pulling up the last of the sorghum harvest, cotton picking and early winter crop planting.

The latest Lachstock Weekly Rainfall report recorded 50–150mm across northern NSW, 0–50mm in the state’s northwest and, in Queensland, patchy falls of 10–50mm in the Darling Downs, and 5–15mm in the far eastern parts of the south-west.

Robinson Grain trader based at Toowoomba, Anthony Furse, said the latest rainfall event has spurred an increase in grower selling activity.

“We’re seeing an increased volume of growers selling as they’ve had more rain and are either planting or planning to start planting for new crop and need to shift grain,” Mr Furse said.

He said despite this shift, it was clear that selling wouldn’t ramp up until July.

“We think a lot of farmers are still holding off for July for the new financial before they make more marketing sales of their old crop barley and wheat.”

In Gunnedah, Quest Commodities broker Jayne Baker said this activity was barely keeping up with the demand.

She said given the amount of grain still on-farm, the financial year will most likely bring a “proportionally a bit higher” volume of selling than usual.

“We’re not getting a big rush of growers still,” Ms Barker said.

“Barley supplies are still just keeping up with demand…and the same with wheat.

“There is going to be a lot of new financial year selling compared to usual.”

Sorghum continues to dominate exports out of the north, with “a lot of boats being loaded in April and May”, according to Mr Furse.

“Noticeably, the Brisbane zone exports are quite lethargic for wheat.

“Sorghum has been more the flavour of the month and has been very active.”

Mr Furse said the “looming northern hemisphere crop” was already having an impact on prices in export markets with “softening” seen was July onwards.

On cottonseed, Woodside Commodities managing director Hamish Steele-Park said most gins had opened but many were yet to expand operations to 24/7.

“Picking progressing quickly in the Riverina, but been a bit slow in the north,” Mr Steele-Park said.

“Export markets remain quiet, while domestic demand consistent.

“Like every year China the key to future price direction.”

He said the cottonseed values “remain bound with Gwydir Valley” at around $420/t ex-gin and $465/t for delivered Downs and $425/t for the Riverina ex-gin.

Southern winter crop concerns build

As May begins, the continued absence of widespread rainfall across southern growing regions is expected to push growers to reassess their cropping programs, factoring in rising input costs and the uncertain outlook for spring rain.

Lachstock data showed limited rainfall across South Australia, with most areas receiving no more than 10mm.

In Victoria, totals were more varied, ranging from 5–50mm in the Mallee, 10–15mm in the Wimmera, and 10–25mm in the Western Districts.

The Loddon and eastern Goulburn Valley recorded 25–50mm, while Gippsland saw patchy falls of 10–50mm.

The dry conditions have already prompted a re-think for some with ASX-listed firm, Duxton Farms, reporting this week that it switched out canola for grain crops at its Forbes aggregation.

Wagga Wagga-based Peter’s Commodities trader Peter Gerhardy said he expected that more growers would switch to wheat and barley as the season progresses.

“There has been a little bit of dry sowing, but it’s not going full ball because they’re looking at the costs,” Mr Gerhardy said.

He said “grower selling had really dried up” in the south, despite demand continuing, mostly driven by the domestic stockfeeders.

“The drought market – the sheep feeders, the cattle feeders, the fat lamb feeders – they’ve all stepped in now and they’ve all put in their hands to try and acquire grain to keep the stock alive.”

Wilken Grain trader at Melbourne, Andrew Kelso, said the barley market would be one to watch this year if South Australia and western Victoria continued to experience dry conditions.

“Given that there is a lack of hay in fodder in South Australia and Victoria, I think barley’s going to be in demand until the end of the year,” Mr Kelso said.

“Then you have the competition from China given that they aren’t buying anything from the US.

“If they want barley, until June or July it’s got to come from Australia.”

He said barley prices had been held steady largely due to the firm Australian dollar, which has hovered around 64 US cents.