Fewer sheep are expected to be heading into sheds for shearing over the next two years.

AUSTRALIA’S 2024/25 wool production forecast has been dropped to 280.1 million kilograms as the number of sheep to be shorn is adjusted down 12 percent to 63 million.

The latest Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee’s latest forecast of shorn wool production represents an 11.8pc decrease on its 2023/24 estimate.

The committee today said shorn wool production is expected to decrease in all states, although it expects the average cut per head to be comparable with 2023/24 at 4.45 kg greasy, down 0.2pc.

The AWPFC’s first forecast of shorn wool production for the 2025/26 season is 256.6 Mkg greasy, an 8.4pc decrease on the 2024/25 forecast.

Committee chairman Stephen Hill said the revised forecast reflects the continuing drought conditions in western Victoria and South Australia and a decrease in the number of sheep shorn and shorn wool production in all states.

“Commodity prices, input costs and variable seasonal conditions continue to impact sheep producers’ decisions regarding their enterprise mix, particularly in Western Australia where wool test volumes and first-hand auction offerings were down by 17.8pc and 21.2pc respectively to the end of March.”

Mr Hill said while Queensland produces about 3-5pc of the national clip, the recent major flood event will have a significant negative impact in that state’s key wool producing regions with major damage to infrastructure, including exclusion fencing and substantial stock losses.

The committee is forecasting a decline in production for all states ranging from over 18pc in WA and South Australia to 1.1pc in Tasmania.

AWTA key test data for the 2024/25 season to the end of March show small year-on-year reductions in mean fibre diameter (down 0.3 microns), staple strength (down 1.5 N/ktex) and yield (down 1.1pc). Staple length was 0.3 mm longer with no year-on year change in vegetable mater (2.2pc).

AWTA wool test volumes for the 2024/25 season to the end of March were down by 8.9pc on a year-on-year basis. Firsthand offered wool at auction during 2024/25 to end of March were down by 9.1pc.

The committee said sheep slaughter from July to December 2024 was up 29pc compared with same time in 2023 and was 58pc above the five-year July to December average.

The AWPFC said it was waiting for the updated ABS sheep flock estimates that are expected to be released in mid-June. They will be included in the information considered by the AWPFC State and National Committees when they next meet to revise their shorn wool production forecasts for 2024/25 and 2025/26.