Fire and Rescue New South Wales air lifts fodder to flood-affected livestock producers. Supplied – Fire and Rescue NSW.
LACK of rain, on-farm water and pasture growth is driving cattle, sheep and lambs into saleyards and abattoirs in record numbers, and hampering cropping programs, just as flooding rainfall across parts of New South Wales is impacting livestock survival and movement.
The perfect storm of seasonal difficulties is overwhelming saleyards with cattle and sending scanned ewes into online marketplaces and abattoirs, with the expectation of short and long-term impacts on prices as processors react to current supplies and expected shortages in the spring.
Processing space is still available for sheep and lambs, but is at a premium for cattle, with a large turn-off of dairy cattle in the south meaning some processors won’t have kill space for unbooked cattle for weeks and are limiting purchases from distant saleyards which is rare for this time of the year.
Some southern beef producers and processors with large pastoral/backgrounding operations are sending thousands of cattle north into areas of New South Wales that have had rain and where agistment can be found.
For sheep producers the decisions are revolving around finance to continue to feed and water stock in containment areas or sell out and regroup, although ewes in many flocks are close to lambing and trucking stock is no longer an option.
However, despite the seasonal and processing difficulties, analysts believe the strength of demand for beef, sheep and lamb means prices are being maintained despite the stock turnoff. And the numbers of in-lamb ewes and cows, and cow-calf units being sold in prime markets to processors is leading many to expect a shortage of stock when the season recovers.
Nutrien national livestock manager Mark Barton said northern cattle producers are taking advantage of limioted competition in southern New South Wales markets on store stock.
“The restockers have a genuine understanding of the lack of supply going forward, once we do get a break.”
He said the sheep and cattle breeders are down to their core stock in females and there hasn’t been strong restocking demand for sheep.
But he said the second half of the year is looking fairly positive, particularly in the cattle job, but the manufacturing meat markets for beef and sheep are looking positive.
“There is every reason to consider there will be a significant upside over the next six months in both sheep and cattle, driven by supply and all the fundamentals, the Australian dollar, the global markets.
“I think everything lines up for a pretty positive time for those people who have been able maintain to their numbers.”
Windy, dry weather halts SA seeding
In South Australia, strong to destructive winds have halted sowing of winter cereals and lentils into bone dry moisture profiles.
However, forecasts for coming days point to showers, and isolated patches of the SA grainbelt have jagged just enough rain to germinate crops.
Meningie-based Platinum Ag agronomist Matt Howell said sourcing hay was the major concern for producers in his region.
“They’re about 75-percent done with dry seeding, and livestock feed is the concern; there’s none left,” he said.
“Hay is very hard to find now, and numbers are being sold right back.”
Mr Howell estimates sheep and cattle producers are down to 60-70pc of their core breeder numbers, and will be selling more as fodder gets harder to find for stock in containment pens amid the dusty paddocks.
“There’s nothing domestic left in SA, and western Vic we’ve just about skun for hay; now we’re in NSW competing with what they need after the flood.”
Mr Howell said cereal hay landed in SA’s South East normally sold for around $250 per tonne, but is now trading at $580-$600/t to reflect heady competition for remains in NSW sheds.
Widespread criticism is being levelled at the SA Government for not providing cost and/or freight subsidies to help secure commercially available hay needed to bolster dwindling on-farm supplies.
“The NSW Government is a whole lot more proactive than SA’s.”
Mr Howell said graziers and mixed farmers were “chasing anything”, including almond hulls and rejected potatoes, to feed stock.
While pellets are a preferred feed option, Mr Howell said spot orders come with waits of 6-8 weeks as manufacturers stretch themselves to keep up with demand.
“People are doing whatever they can to reduce their feed demand; everyone’s madly selling dry ewes or preg testing, and blokes are working hard to keep their stock in saleable condition.”
Mr Howell said the Upper South East needed rain by the first week of June to kick-start a winter crop, even just for grazing.
Western Australia waits for fill-in rain
Western Australia is waiting on rain for the northern third of its cropping region to get cereals, lupins, and some canola up and away.
While dry patches have developed in all regions bar the high-rainfall Great Southern, agronomist and SLR Agriculture chief executive officer Michael Lamond said 10-25mm of rain on the eight-day forecast should put crops back on track.
“The Esperance port zone is OK; its crop is up, but they haven’t had rain for three weeks,” Mr Lamond said.
“The south coast is OK, Albany west is OK, and the Lakes district has some areas that are good.
“Eastern areas have crop that’s in and up, but when you move north, there’s virtually no crop up at all.”
He said the Geraldton Zone, and much of the Kwinana North Zone, needed rain to get the crop going in the next three weeks.
“There’s still probably a third of the state that has had no rain, but there’s still a fair bit of crop going in.”
Mr Lamond said a partial or complete shift out of sheep and into cropping was occurring ahead of the expected cessation of live exports.
“In the high-rainfall areas, there’s not a lot of country that’s suitable for cropping that’s left as pasture, but as you move into the medium and low-rainfall areas, they’re still substituting pasture for crop.”
This year alone, he said area swings of 6-10pc out of pasture and into crop had been seen in some areas.
While WA is the powerhouse of Australian grain production and exports, Mr Lamond does not believe big reserves are available to send east for drought feed, in part because of biosecurity restrictions tied to hay and lupins.
“You can’t get hay across the border, but lupins you can, once you clear a few hurdles.”
They relate to necessary assurances that WA lupins will not carry anthracnose into disease-free areas of eastern Australia.
“There are not a lot of reserves here; lupin production wasn’t huge last year, and we have an export market of 350,000t, which doesn’t leave a lot left.”
He said the rule-of-thumb transport cost of $200/t for grain also made it difficult for WA product to calculate into SA.
NSW mid-north coast devastated
More than 500mm of rain was recorded for parts of the NSW Mid North Coast, causing significant stock losses, with reports of cattle drowning in floodwaters or washing out to sea.
NSW Farmers president Xavier Martin said this event was worse than the 2022 floods and was going to take years for producers to recover from.
“We know farmers did everything they could to prepare for this disaster, but the reality is these floods have inflicted colossal damage and devastation on our farm communities and towns,” he said.
“This was a significant and historic flood event, so while we don’t have the numbers yet, we know for a start we’re talking hundreds of millions in damages.
“Fences and farm infrastructure have been swept away, roads are cut and ruined, livestock are affected, and pastures and crops are underwater.
“The government estimated the 2022 floods cost NSW’s agriculture sector $432.4 million in damages, so we know the damage bill is going to be even greater this time around for our farmers.”
Further south the Wagga Wagga district recorded between 30mm and 45mm which helped boost today’s cattle sale, according to livestock agent Tim Drum.
“There is definitely a bit more confidence in the market with some categories 25 to 30cents dearer,” he said.
The Minns Government has started using helicopters to provide isolated farmers with emergency fodder for their stranded livestock, as part of a range of support available to flood-affected farmers across NSW’s Mid-North Coast, North Coast and Hunter regions.
As of midday Saturday, 24 May, there have been 43 helicopter aerial drops of fodder, and nearly 131 emergency fodder drops by other means. There have also been 15 requests for animal assessment and veterinary support.
The NSW Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development with Local Land Services teams, with around 80 people available for responding, are working together as the Agricultural and Animal Services Functional Area (AASFA), that is managing the agricultural and animal welfare hotline and its response activities.
The AASFA operation is providing farmers with emergency fodder in cases of immediate animal welfare concern, aerial support for isolated or stranded livestock, and fodder drops to farmers in the Hunter and other areas affected.
Through the AASFA emergency hotline, farmers and community members can make requests for carcass disposal and report deceased livestock, either on properties or that have been transported by floodwaters off properties and into community spaces.
Impacted farmers can call the AASFA hotline: 1800 814 647 (8am to 6pm, 7x days a week)
South-west Victoria desperate for relieving rain
In south-west Victoria, sheep and lamb producers are anxiously awaiting significant rain as front after front drifts away without leaving falls necessary to boost spelled pastures.
Meanwhile, some processors are reportedly trying to secure new season lamb supplies under contract before lambs are dropped, highlighting the prospect of a lamb shortage in the spring.
Charles Stewart and Co auctioneer Jamie McConachie said as a result of the drought in Victoria he expected there would be shortage of all stock – sheep, lambs and cattle – at some stage.
“And that will probably coincide with new season lamb time.
“The amount of pregnant ewes we are selling through the saleyards (Ballarat) is frightening – thousands upon thousands.”
Mr McConachie said many flocks are almost at the stage where ewes will start lambing.
“But over the last four to six weeks the amount of pregnant ewes (offered) has just been incredible – all ages, but they are getting younger and younger as we get deeper into the season.”
Mr McConachie said cattle producers are selling pregnant spring calvcers and also splitting autumn drop cows and calves in the fat markets.
He said he didn’t blame processors for having supply concerns and trying to secure forward supplies of lambs under contracts.
“There probably is some sort of urgency required.”
But Mr McConachie said producers who could last the season and feed costs would be well-rewarded.
“It is not an easy thing to carry stock at the moment.
“We had a hay auction on Saturday and we sold pasture hay for $314 a roll (estimated 400kg) and silage at $400 a roll – it worked out at about $900 a tonne.
“And we sold straw for $200 a roll,” he said.
Elders livestock manager at Bendigo Nigel Starick said some pregnant ewes are being sold through the saleyards. He had not heard of processors trying to contract new season lambs.
“I would be contracting new season lambs right now, because you wouldn’t know whether you were going to get them or not – you would want to have an ‘out’ clause.”
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