Seasonal climate outlook for June to August 2022

Bureau of Meteorology, May 27, 2022

June to August 2022 Rainfall outlook



LA Niña is slowly weakening into Winter, but above average rainfall is expected for eastern Australia.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s Winter 2022 Climate Outlook shows a slowly weakening La Niña is one climate factor influencing above average Winter rainfall for most of central and eastern Australia in coming months.

Parts of south-western Australia and south-western Tasmania are likely to have below average rainfall this Winter.

The outlook predicts the unusually wet conditions for inland parts of New South Wales, South Australia, Queensland and the Northern Territory are likely to be in the top 20 percent of wettest Winters. With Northern Australia’s dry season starting in May, it only takes a small amount of extra rain to be above average at this time of year.

With already saturated catchments in south-eastern Australia, the Winter rain extends the flood risk for these regions.

The flood waters in low lying areas in Queensland and New South Wales will slowly move inland towards South Australia over coming months.

There is an above 80pc chance of unusually high Winter temperatures in coastal, south-western and northern parts of Western Australia, coastal northern areas of the Northern Territory and Queensland, south-eastern New South Wales, southern and eastern Victoria, and all of Tasmania.

A large section of central Australia has an increased chance of unusually low winter daytime temperatures, in the coolest 20pc of past Winters. This extends from Western Australia’s eastern area through central Australia into the eastern states.

Warmer than average nights are likely almost everywhere – with at least an 80pc chance of higher minimum temperatures for most of Australia.

The Winter outlooks reflect several climate influences, including a developing negative Indian Ocean Dipole, a slowly declining La Niña in the Pacific Ocean and warmer than average waters around northern Australia.



July 2022 rainfall outlook:


‘First look’ July to September 2022 rainfall outlook



Maximum temperature outlook


Source: Bureau of Meteorology.

To view more outlook maps for coming weeks and months click here

Previous forecast versus actual rainfall

Maps below compare BOM’s rainfall forecast for February to April 2022, issued  27 January 2022, with actual rainfall recorded over the February to April 2022 period.

Forecast median rainfall February to April 2022:


Actual rainfall recorded February to April 2022:


Source: Bureau of Meteorology



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