AUSTRALIA’S forecasts for wool production for this year and the next are continuing to drop, with the national clip now expected to be 255.4 million kilograms this financial year.

And the Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee’s has forecast shorn wool production for the 2026/27 season to dip to the historically low point of 243.9 Mkg greasy, a 4.5 percent decrease on the 2025/26 forecast.

The committee expects 59.3 million sheep to be shorn in 2025/26 is 59.3 million, down 5.9pc. This is only just above the historical low point about 56.8 million sheep shorn in 1905

Average cut per head is expected to be 4.31 kg greasy, down 3.1pc.

Committee chairman, Stephen Hill said seasonal conditions continue to challenge sheep enterprises in key wool producing regions, particularly in New South Wales, Tasmania and southern Queensland.

“While much wanted rain fell during February and March in other states, stock water availability remains an issue, particularly in Victoria and New South Wales,” he said.

Mr Hill said while the improved wool market continues to boost producer sentiment regarding wool production, sheep producers remain wary of the dry seasonal outlook.

“The high cost of replacement breeding ewes has persisted, with short-term flock recovery expected to be based on breeding those ewes currently on hand.

“Global uncertainty adds to the mix of variables impacting sheep producer decision making going into the new season,” he said.

The 2025/26 season forecast is 8.8pc lower than the 2024/25 estimate.

Low ewe numbers and meat prices limiting shearing

The committee attributed the historically low level of 59.3 million shorn to lower numbers of breeding ewes and continued high sheep meat and skin prices.

Compared with the same time last year sheep and lamb slaughter from July to December 2025 were down 25pc and 12pc respectively. However, looking at the five-year (July to December) averages, sheep slaughter remained 12pc higher and lamb slaughter 5pc lower, the committee said. Based on ABS slaughter numbers, sheep and lamb weights were higher than in the December quarter in 2024.

The committee said AWTA key test data for the 2025/26 season to the end of March shows no change in mean fibre diameter or vegetable matter, a 0.3 mm increase in staple length, 0.6 N/ktex reduction in staple strength and a 0.1pc reduction in yield.

AWTA wool test volumes for the 2025/26 season to the end of March were 208.5 Mkg greasy down by 9.5% on a year-on-year basis. AWEX data showed that firsthand wool offered at auction during 2025/26 to the end of March (week 40) were 197.3 Mkg greasy, down by 3.1%. The AWPFC adopted the ABS flock estimates released in December 2025, which included revised national flock figures from 2016/17 onwards that reflect the change in scope to capture all sheep grown for commercial gain in Australia.