Will Barton when the heavy lamb indicator went over $10 a kg last year.

GUNDAGAI Lamb will introduce a 10-week forward price grid to help secure sufficient lambs during autumn and winter this year, and give producers processing space surety.

Gundagai Meat Processors chief executive officer Will Barton yesterday advised producers the industry is expecting a critical shortage of suitable lambs over the autumn and winter period, the extent and precise timing of which remains largely unknown.

“Gundagai Lamb has always placed strong value on building trust via transparency.

“With that in mind, we are providing an update on how we intend to book and price lambs for the next 6 to 12 months,” he said in an email to producers.

Mr Barton said the impending shortage of lambs has already led to high lamb prices at the farm gate.

The heavy lamb indicator increased by approximately 50 percent in 2025 compared to an increase of circa 35pc in our sell price.

“We are now experiencing a high level of price fatigue across all customers globally, making it unlikely that a second round of price peaks in winter 2026 will be manageable,” he said.

“In response to these conditions, processing plants, including Gundagai Meat Processors, are preparing for potential operational adjustments.

“This may include reducing operating days or shifts and extending winter shutdown periods.”

Mr Barton said historically, Gundagai has allowed producers to ‘pencil in’ lambs well in advance and wait for the fortnightly grid release to confirm consignments.

“This season, there is a higher likelihood that we will reduce production rather than chase spot lambs, particularly where livestock pricing remains unprofitable.”

He said there were risks that the Gundagai plant may not have capacity to process all unconfirmed (pencilled in) lambs and alternative processing options may be limited if other plants also reduce operations.

“Based on our ongoing conversations with many of you, and in recognition of the need for greater certainty in planning decisions, we are introducing an adjustment to our approach.

“From Monday, 16 February and each fortnight thereafter we will release both our regular fortnightly grid and a new 10-week forward price grid.”

Gundagai won’t chase unprofitable lambs – Barton

Mr Barton said the 10-week forward price grid will enable producers to secure processing space for their lambs, lock in a minimum grid price in advance, participate in half the upside to the regular grid in the week of consignment, plan finishing programs to optimise GLQ5+ percentages (at a time when GLQ5+ percentages typically peak) and assess store lamb purchasing and feeding decisions with greater confidence.

“We see this as a positive step that strengthens our overall offering at Gundagai Lamb, supports our supply chain partnerships, and improves the transparency and confidence you have when making business decisions for your operation.”

Mr Barton told Sheep Central from 16 February and every fortnight, as well the GL spot grid, there will be a forward contract open for about a week based on the 10-week price grid.

He said typically if there is margin in the market, processors can afford to have a component of “last minute’ purchases, “because if you have to pay a little bit over in a spot market there is enough margin to fill your processing space.”

“So you are happy to leave a bit until the last minute, whereas this season is not a last minute season.

“So if we don’t have the book full, we won’t pay over to fill the plant, we’ll reduce the capacity,” he said.

“Having a bit of vision into what’s available and what you secure is really important this season, and more important than in most seasons.”

Mr Barton said GMP wanted the market to know our position at any given time.

“Which really leans into how we have always operated, which is our DNA; to be transparent and to build trust with our producers to say ‘look this is where we see it going, this is a profitable level for us that we can operate at, if we can’t achieve that we’d rather be processing a few less than chasing more at unprofitable levels.”

Mr Barton said Gundagai Lamb’s sell price peaked in November last year “and it’s been a real challenge to hold it up.”

“Current sentiment is that the buy price is going to reach new heights this winter and if we can’t extract more out of the sell then we’re in a real jam.”