Rainfall outlook

AUGUST to October rainfall this year is likely to be below average — a 60 to 80 percent chance — for most of the South West Land Division of Western Australia, south-east South Australia, most of the eastern states, and parts of the north including the Top End of the Northern Territory, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s latest seasonal climate outlook forecast released last week.

The bureau says there is an increased chance of unusually low rainfall* (40 to 70 percent chance) for parts of south-east and south-west Australia, including regions that have already experienced long term rainfall deficiencies over the past two years.

Above average rainfall is likely (60pc to greater than 80%pc chance) over parts of north-west Australia extending into the interior.

The likelihood is highest towards the end of the season, when rainfall over northern Australia is transitioning from the dry to the wet season.

During August and September, most of the tropical north, except for the east coast of Cape York Peninsula, typically receives very little rainfall. Therefore, only small amounts of rainfall, often less than 5 to 10 mm, can be enough to exceed monthly averages.

There is also an increased chance of above average rainfall over the eastern coastal fringe of Cape York Peninsula, with the strongest chances earlier in the season.

The Bureau’s forecast for below average rainfall across the south-west, east and parts of the north is consistent with most international models. The forecast shift to above average rainfall over the north-west is broadly consistent with most other models, but the strength of the signal varies, with ACCESS-S showing the highest likelihoods.

*Unusually low rainfall is that in the driest 20% of August to October records between 1981 and 2018.

Outlook video

Temperature outlook

August to October maximum temperatures are likely to be above average (60pc to greater than 80pc chance) across most of Australia south of the tropics.

Maximum temperatures are likely to be below average (60 to 80pc chance) across northern areas of Queensland, the Northern Territory, and Western Australia.

There is an increased chance (over 60pc chance) of unusually high maximum temperatures* across the southern two-thirds of Australia, with the highest chances (over 80pc) for western parts of Western Australia and much of south-east Australia extending into far southern Queensland.

Minimum temperatures are likely (60pc to greater than 80pc chance) to be above average across most of Australia except in some parts of the north.

There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures2 (over 60pc chance) across much of the southern two-thirds of Australia, with the highest chances (over 80pc chance) across the western half of Western Australia and much of south-east Australia extending from Tasmania and Victoria, and through eastern NSW.

The temperature outlook from ACCESS-S is consistent with most international models. Some international models forecast higher chances of below average temperatures across northern Australia.

^*Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of August to October days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

COMPARISON

Previous three-month outlook versus actual rainfall received

May to July 2026 rainfall outlook (issued 30 April 2026):

May to July 2026 rainfall deciles:

Source: BOM