A WA Roadmap to 2028 economic analysis report has laid out the size of the challenge to rebuild Western Australia’s sheep industry from the flock, labour and production impacts of the Albanese Government’s decision to phase out live sheep exports by sea in May 2028.
And some sheep industry stakeholders think some of the analysis’ findings for potential flock, labour and income growth might be idealistic or optimistic.
The WA Roadmap to 2028 economic analysis report released last week found that without co-ordinated action, structural barriers will continue to limit Western Australia’s sheep industry.
These would mean a delayed rebound in the flock; land use, labour market and processing bottleneck constraints; and lost opportunities for growth.
However, the analysis found that with co-ordinated action there could be:
Incremental improvements in flock size by 17pc or 1.5 million sheep,
Higher meat production by 38,000 tonnes per annum and,
An increase in annual wool production of 6400 tonnes.
The analysis said these developments, if achieved, could represent a direct value add-on of $660 million in real terms, with a further $620m in indirect value-add, supporting an additional 1600 direct and 2300 indirect job, with the average mixed farm sheep producer potentially boosting cash by $100,000 a year.
The report said industry data indicated WA’s flock dropped from 12.4m in July 2022 to 8.6-10.5 million in mid-2025, but in its economic baseline, with an 8.7m flock size in FY2026, it modelled flock increase to only 9m by 2030.
The report’s authors said the economic analysis is based on publicly available data and industry consultation, and illustrative modelling of supply chain interventions, to demonstrate how the WA sheep supply chain could evolve to 2030.
The authors said the report does not present predictions of specific policy outcomes and investment decisions, recommendations of specific policy settings (policy choices remain with government) nor guaranteed economic outcomes.
However, Australian Livestock Exporters Council chief executive officer Mark Harvey-Sutton said the report seemed to show that if the WA sheep industry did the equivalent of “standing on one leg touching its nose and patting its head it might be able to get half the sheep that it has lost as a result of the live sheep export ban back.”
Mr Harvey-Sutton said the report was also the first acknowledgment that there has been significant job losses as a result of the live sheep ban.
The ALEC CEO said the report seemed idealistic to him “and everything has to go right.”
“Sure it might be possible, but a lot of things have to go their way.”
Mr Harvey-Sutton said the report basically showed that the flock losses as a result of the Albanese Government’s live export ban would not be recovered.
“Because it is only saying that the flock could be increased by 1.5 million and my understanding is that flock has reduced by 3 million.
“Western Australian sheep producers deserve some good news, but I don’t think this report is it.”
WAFarmers president Steve McGuire welcomed the report in putting some financial figures around the current situation of the WA sheep industry.
“It indicates that any significant rebuild in the WA sheep flock will take time.
“The report authors noted the lack of confidence in the sheep industry after the decision to ban live sheep exports,” he said.
Mr Mcguire said the report suggests that some forward contracting or risk-sharing by the supply chain may be necessary to address this lack of confidence.
“They’re not saying what will happen, they are saying what could happen if everything goes right –it’s more of a situational analysis, it’s a bit of a misnomer calling it an economic analysis; there is more to come I think.
“What they are saying basically is that if everything goes right, in four years time we will be back to where we were four years ago.”
The economic analysis report was prepared by Rennie Advisory Pty Ltd for Sheep Producers Australia to support the findings of the WA Roadmap to 2028, due for launch tomorrow. The authors said the report is intended for use by SPA, the transition advocate, the transition Strategic Steering Group, government agencies, industry and stakeholders involved in policy discussions concerning The Future Flock.
Sheep Producers Australia chief executive officer Bonnie Skinner said the economic analysis is independent analysis commissioned to test a range of potential industry scenarios, market settings, risks and opportunities.
Click here to see and read the WA Roadmap to 2028 economic analysis report on the Future Flock website.
Great, another pencil-pushing waste of time and money report on my industry. No sheep producer in Western Australia has the confidence to build numbers for these reasons. The eastern states can come over here and buy store lambs, pay the massive freight bill and still be ahead. Why aren’t WA producers being paid the same as in the east?
We’ve had a number of abattoirs shut down. The more we produce, the harder it will be to get bookings and the east will be even further in front.
The main market we had to remove excess sheep and keep us competitive with the eastern states had been completely removed because of bulls$@t Labor policy.
Every sheep producer in the state is sick of bending over and taking it up the clacker year after year.
We will see an increase in oilseed and cereal pricing later in the year discouraging any increase in sheep numbers.
I predict sheep numbers be stable up to 2030 but no ‘rebound’; once it’s gone in WA, it’s gone.
There you go, just as detailed a report as someone got paid $500,000 to write. They should have given me the money, so I could double it for you instead of blowing it on pen pushers.