SHEEP Producers Australia’s latest Future Flock reports have sparked critical feedback on the number of factual and sourcing errors in the documents prepared with $800,000 in Federal Government funding.
The Future Flock – A Ten Year View’ (2027-2036) report and an accompanying economic analysis report were quietly released Monday afternoon via a Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry website statement and emails to consultation participants.
SPA said ‘The Ten-Year View’ report covered the experiences, aspirations and perspectives shared through the FFS industry consultation and the economic analysis report examined structural factors influencing long-term industry performance, competitiveness and profitability.
The much-awaited reports follow on from an insights document released in July at the Lambex conference by SPA chief executive officer Bonnie Skinner.
In July 2026, DAFF said The Future Flock provides a national strategic framework to support a strong, sustainable and profitable future for Australia’s sheep meat and wool industries. Informed by economic modelling and national consultations with producers and supply chain participants, The Future Flock sets a clear, industry-led direction for the Australian sheep industry, the department said.
However, the ‘Ten-Year View’ report states that the task of building The Future Flock strategy is not yet complete.
“It is, by nature, an iterative process that will benefit from ongoing inputs. Further consultations and discussions will take place over the coming months as the exercise goes on to develop targeted initiatives, as well as capturing suggestions by individual parties, peak bodies, RDCs and industry participants as to the means by which the vision will, over time, become reality.”
The reports’ release has sparked significant personal and AI-generated analysis that raise questions about their value to the industry, and of the $800,000 grant provided exclusively to SPA by Minister Julie Collins and her department.
Additionally, the $800,000 grant was taken from the federal live sheep export transition package, and funded the WA Industry Roadmap as an adjustment strategy, but the “A Ten-Year View Report’ makes no WA-specific recommendations.
Rennie Advisory states that artificial intelligence tools were used to assist in the research for and development of the economic analysis report, and that all contents were reviewed and finalised by Rennie Advisory. Trudeau & Associates make no such AI disclaimer for the ‘A Ten-Year View’ report.
Before release, the reports were supplied to the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry and to the Future Flock National Advisory Panel that includes experienced sheep producers, researchers and consultants including chair Angus Hobson, Dr Alex Ball, Andrew Bouffler, Beth Green, Chris Mirams Patrick Hutchinson, Dr Holly Ludeman, Sally Martin, Lachlan Monsborough and Chad Taylor.
Who has the largest sheep flock?
Heading the list of mistakes pointed out to Sheep Central include the ‘A Ten-Year View’ report’s executive summary stating that Australia has the largest sheep flock in the world.
On page 20 the ‘ten-year view’ report states that “at 69 million head, the Australian sheep flock is the largest in the world, well ahead of competitors like New Zealand, South Africa, Argentina and Uruguay.”
It later states that: “The Fall in Numbers Notwithstanding, the Australian Sheep Industry Remains in Top Place for Size in World Rankings.”
China has a sheep flock estimated at 170-190 million, more than double the estimated number of sheep in Australia.
Apart from a myriad of other typos and grammatical errors, analysts have noted scenario alternatives turned into sequential phases, the stretching of evidence beyond what it establishes and the progression of consultation opinion as asserted fact to a strategic imperative without an adequate evidentiary step in between.
What did ChatGPT and the analysts say
A critical analysis solicited via AI tool ChatGPT concluded that The Future Flock reports have not adequately demonstrated which opportunities are economically achievable, which should be prioritised, what they will cost, what they will return to producers, or how implementation will occur.
The ‘A Ten-Year View Report’ states that The Future Flock envisages an industry that, at the end of the decade and beyond, displays four fundamental attributes; productivity as the key to profitability; sustainability that is resilient enough that productive capacity or its ability to seize opportunities without impairing productive capacity; critical mass to maintain and enhance its presence and its reputation, and contribute to the economy, the environment and regional communities, and autonomy to be the master of its destiny and attract investment, without requiring subsidies or artificial support.
The ‘Ten-Year View’ report then identifies ten imperatives: industry culture; industry unity; demographic renewal; animal welfare; whole-animal value optimisation; land-use and strategic decision-making; data, analytics and AI; end-to-end supply-chain performance; research and innovation adoption; and intelligent compliance management.
Complementing this is the economic analysis that models alternative future scenarios and presents the potential for substantial growth in industry GVA.
However, the ChatGPT analysis said: “The problem is that the process moves from consultation to themes to imperatives to economic scenarios without providing sufficient evidence that the intervening steps are analytically justified.”
The artificial intelligence analysis also suggested that while the Future Flock consultations may seem large in volume, they are insufficiently transparent to establish representativeness, and engagement numbers should not be presented as evidence of industry consensus. It also noted that most of the ten imperatives are longstanding industry issues and the report does not sufficiently demonstrate what new knowledge the process generated.
Other analysts noted that the report acknowledges it lacks data on how much of the flock older farmers control, but then assumes older producers will invest and adopt less, before using that assumption to argue that productivity efforts should focus more heavily on younger farmers. Another noted that consultation participants qualitatively supported maintaining industry critical mass, but the report then adopts the current 68-70 million sheep flock as a strategic baseline without demonstrating why that specific number represents the minimum viable scale.
The Freshwater view
Victorian sheep and beef producer Andrew Freshwater did an in-depth analysis of the reports and was the first to note the global sheep flock error and the incorrect statement: “Australia remains the world’s largest producer and exporter of wool”, also a mantle held by China.
He found that sheep meat production figures are incorrectly described as factual rather than projections, and Gross Value Add (GVA) is incorrectly described as equalling profitability. The glossary contains several basic errors including describing the Border Leicester as a terminal sire.
He noted lamb production in FY2025 is quoted as 610,000 tonnes. However, lamb production of 610,000 tonnes is not the FY2025 figure, it is MLA’s projection for the calendar year 2025, made during 2025, alongside a forecast lamb kill of 24.9 million head.
MLA published FY2024-25 lamb production off ABS data in August 2025 and it was 624,549 tonnes, the second largest annual output on record, with 11.7 million head of sheep processed, the most since FY2007, Mr Freshwater said.
Section 2.4.1 of the report says mutton production increased by 9pc to approximately 256,000 tonnes.
“That 9pc doesn’t belong to MLA and it doesn’t belong to 256,000 tonnes.
“It’s ABARES, through DAFF, forecasting mutton up 9pc to 288,000 tonnes in 2024-25, inside a total sheep meat forecast of 942,000 tonnes,” Mr Freshwater noted.
“Someone has taken a growth rate off one forecaster, bolted it onto a tonnage from another covering a different period, and printed the result as a single sourced fact.”
Mr Freshwater told Sheep Central he believed that the industry needed a Future Flock Strategy not a “word salad.”
“But if we are going to do it everything has to be spot on and near enough is not good enough.
“Given the fact that this was supposed to be released at Lambex and it wasn’t … it kind of feels like it was just thrown out there.”
Mr Freshwater has suggested that the reports be withdrawn.
What Sheep Producers Australia is saying now
Sheep Producers Australia chair Bindi Murray said SPA welcomes the interest in The Future Flock and the work underway towards developing Australia’s first national strategy bringing together the sheep meat and wool industries.
“The reports were submitted to Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry as part of the Australian-Government funded project prior to the release.
“SPA acknowledges the issues and criticisms raised in relation to the reports,” she said.
“These will be reviewed and, where errors are identified, addressed.
“We welcome constructive scrutiny of this work.”
Ms Murray said the consultation and economic analysis reports form part of the national strategy, and this is a piece of ongoing work that SPA will continue to refine and deliver.
“More than 350 engagements with producers and stakeholders across the sheep meat and wool supply chains informed the work.
“The reports capture what was heard through that consultation and examine the structural factors influencing the industry’s long-term performance, competitiveness and profitability,” she said.
SPA remains confident this work provides an important foundation for developing a clear, industry-led direction for Australia’s sheep industry and a national framework for addressing the key strategic issues common to the sheep meat and wool industries.
“This is the first time work of this nature has been undertaken nationally,” Ms Murray said.
“It is important that future work builds on this evidence gathered, considers the feedback and scrutiny received, and continues to involve industry in determining the priorities and direction from here.”
The WAFarmers view
WAFarmers chief executive officer Trevor Whittington said after reading The Future Flock ‘A Ten-Year View’ and Andrew Freshwater’s detailed critique, “this is the latest in what is becoming an embarrassing failure to produce professional work from the very substantial amount of government and industry money being spent on the sheep transition.”
“We saw warning signs in Western Australia with the economic work commissioned by those responsible for the WA Roadmap around the WA sheep industry transition.
“Some of that work relied on dated data and questionable assumptions, but frankly it looks world class compared with some of what has now been released under Future Flock,” he said.
“Andrew Freshwater is not throwing rocks from the sidelines.
“He is a highly qualified agricultural scientist, livestock geneticist and practising sheep producer who has gone through the economic report line by line,” Mr Whittington said.
“His critique identifies errors and contradictions in basic production figures, modelling assumptions, definitions, charts and source material.
“These are not arguments about whether a forecast should be three or five per cent. Some are basic matters of fact,” he said.
“When four of the six figures used to calibrate an economic model are challenged because they are from the wrong year, are forecasts rather than actual results, or are outputs from the model itself, you have a fundamental credibility problem.
“Those numbers sit underneath the projections that are supposed to help guide the industry for the next decade.”
Mr Whittington said it is particularly concerning that charts appear to contradict the text accompanying them, and the conclusions if adopted by producers could lead to serious farm business capital misallocations.
“Future Flock is supposed to provide the evidence base for a stronger and more profitable sheep industry.
“You cannot build an industry strategy on numbers and assumptions that are plainly wrong,” he said.
“I completely endorse Andrew Freshwater’s call for Sheep Producers Australia to withdraw the economic report, correct it, apologise to industry … have the modelling independently reviewed and explain publicly what the work cost and what quality assurance was undertaken before it was released.
“SPA also needs to explain how a national report of this importance got through its governance processes in this condition,” Mr Whittington said.
“Producers are entitled to know who checked it, whether it was independently peer reviewed, what it cost and whether levy or taxpayer money paid for it.
“At this point I do not have confidence in SPA simply pressing on with Future Flock as though nothing has happened. Confidence has to be earned back,” he said.
“That starts with acknowledging the problems, pulling the report, independently checking the work and publishing a corrected evidence base.”
The DAFF release
Sheep Central has been unable to find any heralding media release to media outlets announcing The Future Flock reports release with the attached reports, from either DAFF or SPA, although the reports were included in the SPA ‘The Aussie Lamb-scape’ Edition #16 via email Monday evening.
The DAFF statement put up on its website stated that significant work has been undertaken through The Future Flock to build a deeper understanding of the forces and perspectives shaping the future of Australia’s sheep industry over the coming decade and beyond.
“The outcomes of this work have been captured in two independent reports, The Future Flock – A Ten-Year View (2027-2036) and The Future Flock: Economic Analysis.
“They are supported by The Future Flock – Key Insights, which brings together the major findings and considers what they collectively tell us about the future of Australia’s sheep industry, including important connections between issues and areas requiring further exploration.”
DAFF said the findings draw on more than 350 engagements with producers and stakeholders across the sheep meat and wool supply chains, supported by targeted research, independent economic analysis and input from the National Advisory Panel.
DAFF said The Future Flock complements and has been informed by the WA Roadmap to 2028, with both initiatives highlighting the importance of coordinated action and investment to strengthen industry performance, resilience and long-term prosperity.
The release of these publications marks the completion of the Australian Government’s $0.8 million Sheep Industry Strategy and Implementation Plan grant. The Future Flock remains an industry-led, government-supported initiative, with this body of work providing an important foundation for ongoing collaboration, coordination and investment across the sheep industry, the department said.
A departmental spokesperson advised Sheep Central this afternoon that The Future Flock is an industry owned strategy, enabled through grant funding, that has brought together the views of over 350 industry stakeholders, and is informed by expert economic analysis and scenarios.
“Under the grant agreement. SPA provided the department with a copy of materials.
“During the grant activity period, the department met regularly with SPA to understand the progress of the project for both the national (The Future Flock) and WA based (WA Roadmap to 2028) strategies,” the spokesperson said.
“For The Future Flock, the department was updated on the comprehensive national consultation approach and the establishment of the National Advisory Panel (the panel).
“The panel brought together industry expertise from across the supply chain to act as an independent reference point and to guide the strategy and the economic modelling and business analysis that informed it.”
Sheep Central has also sought feedback on the Future Flock reports from DAFF, Livestock SA, NSW Farmers and the Victorian Farmers Federation.
All reports are available on The Future Flock website.
What a mess – seems a blowtorch should be put to the belly of SPA.