Episode 3 analyst Matt Dalgleish at the Naracoorte Lambpro open day.
THE latest American lamb industry effort to limit imports from Australia and New Zealand has sparked industry discussion on whether marketing collaboration efforts should be renewed.
At a Lambpro open day at Naracoorte yesterday, Episode 3 analyst Matt Dalgleish said the solution to the current American sheep meat import situation lay in collaboratively growing US domestic demand.
He said although America is Australia’s biggest market for lamb, on a per capita consumption basis, US citizen consumption of sheep meat was only 1 percent of their total meat diet – equating to about 500gms per person annually. Australians eat about 7 kilograms of sheep meat per year.
“So if we could grow that consumption from 500 gms to just even a kilo, to 2pc, we’re talking 130,000 tonnes of product.
“So even the American market is our biggest market the growth potential is enormous if we get the right kind of marketing in place to push that product.”
However, Mr Dalgleish said American sheep farmers have requested the US International Trade Commission global safeguard investigation into whether lamb imports have caused injury to US lamb producers. About 80pc of sheep meat imports into the US come from Australia and 20pc from New Zealand.
“If they find adversely there could be a big tariff slapped on us at the end of the year, so we are watching that closely.”
Australian lamb imports have helped the US industry – Dalgleish
Mr Dalgleish shared data that refuting the claim that lamb imports have destroyed the US sheep sector, arguing that domestic production had started to decline before Australia’s imports increased. He argued that imports had only substituted the drop in American lamb production and had not come at a cost to the US sector.
“So it is not that the Australian and imported sector had destroyed their industry, their industry was already in decline and we’ve just filled the gap, we’ve just kept lamb on the table.
“So we are actually helping to keep that industry alive there rather than actually competing with it.”
Mr Dalgleish suggested the American, Australian and NZ industries should work together to grow consumption of sheep meat in America.
“If we could get that 1pc, 2pc or 3pc (increase) those three countries wouldn’t be able to supply it.”
“So I think that’s more the narrative, let’s see if we can invest more in what TFI is doing and help Americans eat more meat, and preferably eat more premium stuff as well, and I think that’s an opportunity in that space,” he said.
“But we’ll just have to see how that trade thing goes; if it does hurt us, it’s only going to be short-term, bear that in mind.
“(President) Trump has only got two more years to go, so if we get a bit of pain short-term, the long-term picture is still quite positive for America.”
Mr Dalgleish said Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr’s inverted US food pyramid, that prioritizes whole proteins, healthy fats, and full-fat dairy ahead of whole grains, meant the US Government was encouraging meat consumption. And he said the trend toward increased use of GLP1 diet drugs with doctors’ recommendation to eat high protein nutrition dense foods would flow through to increased demand for lamb. The Episode 3 analyst said GLP1 drug users are trading up their meals and looking for higher value meat, including premium lamb and beef, albeit in smaller portions.
He agreed that limiting or imposing tariffs on red meat imports into the US appeared contradictory to the narrative around the new Kennedy food triangle, because the consumption of sheep meat in the US was so small, but he was worried that there wouldn’t be much “blowback” from consumers if less or only higher priced lamb was available to them.
However, he believed the stronger course of action lay in show how free and open trade could benefit everyone in the US domestic market.
US president Trump would have the final say on action once the global safeguard investigation concludes later this year.
“And that’s my concern, he and his administration don’t look at things like data and logic,” Mr Dalgleish said.
Mr Trump has a natural affinity with protectionism while others regard tariffs as a tax on a country’s own consumers, he said.
The US global safeguard investigation of lamb continues with a public hearing on 16 October and the US ITC will make a determination on 13 November, but Mr Dalgleish said he is very concerned the ITC will “look at it poorly” irrespective of the data and the process will end with an increase in the current 12.5pc tariff to 30-50pc on lamb.
“That’s what I think is going to happen … by the end of the year.”
Mr Dalgleish said he believed Mr Trump will be looking at any opportunity he regarded as a win and would perceive “as a good thing” being able to say he is protecting American sheep producers by increasing the tariff.
“I’m really worried that he is not going to look at anything other than what he perceives to be a cheap vote winner or at least something to gloat over even if it is not accurate and doesn’t hold up to scrutiny with data.”
If the tariff on imported lamb increased into the US, Mr Dalgleish believed lamb consumption in the US would drop and US consumers would switch to other meats.
“It would put back their sector and obviously us and New Zealand at the same time.”
Mr Dalgleish said a significant curtailment in US lamb demand could take $1-$2/kg cwt off trade lamb prices in Australia “pretty sharply.”
Collaborate to market lamb in the US as a category – Bull
Tom Bull at the Naracoorte Lambpro open day.
Lambpro principal Tom Bull said considering the number of American who have not tried lamb, there was definitely an opportunity to work with the Americans to boost lamb consumption.
“A lot of Americans have never eaten lamb, and they’ve never eaten good lamb, so I think there is an education process, it’s not about supply, it’s actually about educating the American consumer on the benefits of lamb.”
Mr Bull said promotions in US stores stocking his lamb brands lifted sales immediately.
Mr Bull also concerned that the lamb safeguard investigation might come down to a captain’s call by President Trump.
Mr Bull said for the American lamb industry to survive the product has to be marketed as a category.
“And I think there is opportunity to do that with them and I think it has been done in the past.
“There are opportunities to collaborate and encourage lamb as a category and Australia has always tried to do that, and we need to continue to do that.”
Mr Bull said he had US requests for access to his high eating quality lamb genetics. He believed there will be opportunities in the future.
But he said efficient production of high eating quality lamb is Australia’s best risk management against global market disruptions, tariffs and import restrictions, but he was concerned with current intramuscular fat trend in the nation’s maternal flock.
Mr Howard said 25 years ago Australia won the WTO case against US lamb tariffs.
“It won’t be the same this time around because of the weakening of the WTO’s authority.
“So perhaps the answer is to resurrect our strategy to work collaboratively with American sheep meat producers.
“It made sense and it still makes sense today.”
The defunct Tri-Lamb Group was an international partnership between peak sheep organizations from Australia, the United States, and New Zealand designed to promote lamb consumption and share industry research. It was superseded by the Global Sheep Producers Forum, that SPA chief executive officer Bonnie Skinner told Sheep Central in 2023, aimed “to provide a common voice for the global sheep community that reflects our collective vision of the future sustainability of the sector.” However, US lamb industry leaders told Sheep Central in July they could not see a role for joint country (Australia, New Zealand the US) marketing of lamb in the US and that the American Lamb Board could only fund the marketing of US lamb.
Peak sheep meat producer body, Sheep Producers Australia’s has been a key contact organisation with the American Sheep Industry Association, but would not outline if it had suggested there would be benefits to American producers in collaborating with Australia and NZ to promote lamb in the US.
Next steps in the US safeguard investigation
The USITC has scheduled an in-person public hearing and webinar on the serious injury lamb meat inquiry for October 16, 2026, in Washington, D.C., from 9:30 am EDT. This puts the hearing starting at 12.30am Australian Eastern Daylight Saving Time on 17 October for south-east Australian watchers. Individuals interested in observing the hearings can join the WebEx webinar via the information below.
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https://usitc.webex.com/usitc/j.php?MTID=me539a5a3f94d82035c79cd9cf9fedd97
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Webinar number (access code): 2819 286 8775
Webinar password: d5XDcTe4pe4 (35932834 when dialing from a phone or video system)
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+1-415-527-5035,,28192868775#35932834# US Toll
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Global call-in numbers
For more information click on this notice link: Institution of Investigation, Scheduling of Public Hearings, and Determination that the Investigation is Extraordinarily Complicated
The USITC will make its serious injury determination by 13 November 2026. If the commission makes an affirmative serious injury determination or is equally divided on the question of injury in the investigation, it will hold a hearing on the question of remedy on December 1, 2026.
The USITC will submit a report to US president Trump as required under section 202(f) of the Trade Act of 1974 within 180 days after the date of the USTR request, or by January 11, 2027. The imported articles covered by the investigation are defined as fresh, chilled, or frozen lamb meat. Live animals and mutton are excluded from the investigation.
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