More hay might be needed in some areas if dry conditions persist with a strong El Niño.

AUSTRALIA’S farmers are being urged to make hay while the sun shines with a warning of a potential fodder shortage if predictions of a strong El Niño come to fruition.

Feed Central said its latest Australian Hay Market Outlook report has confirmed that current hay stocks are relatively high and the market is set to enter a significant production period.

However, Feed Central founder Tim Ford said that while the season was looking promising with strong crop prospects, “history shows that supply can fall quickly when seasonal demand increases”.

Mr Ford warned there was the potential for a serious feed shortfall like in 2016.

“Less than 12 months ago, within our system we were down to about 20,000 tonnes and bringing hay in from Western Australia by road and rail.

“This shows just how fast these carryover seasons can disappear,” he said.

“Our key recommendation is to make the hay and focus on quality.”

Mr Ford said there while the main hay regions were having a great season, there were very strong indications that the El Niño is starting to make an impact.

“The big hay belt across northern Victoria, southern New South Wales and into South Australia is having an exceptional season at the moment,” Mr Ford said.

“Some southern areas are dealing with waterlogging, but there is a very significant hay crop developing.”

However, he said conditions are considerably drier in southern and central Queensland, where pastures and winter crops are under pressure and hay production is being affected, and it appears that the drought regions are growing and spreading south.

“I have been in this game for a long time now and to me this is shaping up like 2016, where there was an oversupply and a big carry over, but by June 2017 stocks were significantly depleted,” Mr Ford said.

He said the forecasted conditions meant farmers needed to be proactive with making hay.

“Everyone needs to be aware that the long-term forecast is for a very strong El Niño, and that has been a very consistent forecast for some time,” he said.

“Many regions are already experiencing it.

“We expect supply to increase as we move into the new season, so prices may come back in the short term, but longer-term demand could increase if dry conditions persist across eastern Australia.”

Mr Ford said bale weights would be very important due to the current high fuel prices.

“It is a win for the seller, the buyer and the transport company when we can load trucks to capacity.

“Bale weight, density, location and truck access are key considerations,” he said.

“Feedlots, dairies and other volume buyers are active, but remain highly conscious of pricing and freight.”

The report can be viewed at https://youtu.be/a6rER11216A.