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Wool auction price increases trigger forward market trades

by Michael Avery, Southern Aurora Markets, 11 May 2018

WOOL auction price rises triggered better volumes in the forward market this week, with trades made through to June 2019.

Modest volumes were traded in the front months, as growers were keener to take advantage of record levels offered in the spring. The spike in the spot market delivered strong prices, with August and September trading to 2010 cents on 19 microns and 1880 cents for 21 microns.

With dry conditions still prevailing over most of the country, guaranteeing premium levels into the New Year seemed to be the focus for some growers. January 2019 traded at 1800 cents for 21 microns. This represented a premium over the then-record level average of 1785 cents for January this year and well in excess of the auction averages for this decade:

2010 January price average for 21 micron – 975 cents

2011 January price average for 21 micron – 1115 cents

2012 January price average for 21 micron – 1318 cents

2013 January price average for 21 micron – 1222 cents

2014 January price average for 21 micron – 1254 cents

2015 January price average for 21 micron – 1148 cents

2016 January price average for 21 micron – 1388 cents

2017 January price average for 21 micron – 1463 cents

Hopefully we will see the trend continue into next week allowing growers to achieve price certainty over the coming seasons production.

Anticipated levels next week

Month                                                19 micron                           21 micron

May                                                    2080 cents                         1990 cents

June                                                    2080 cents                         1960 cents

July                                                     2080 cents                         1940 cents

Aug                                                     2030 cents                         1890 cents

Sept                                                    2010 cents                          1870 cents

Trade summary

June                                     21 micron            1960 cents                        10 tonnes

July                                      19 micron            2080 cents                            2.5 tonnes

July                                       21 micron           1940 cents                            7.5 tonnes

August                                  19 micron           1970/2010 cents                9.5 tonnes

August                                  21 micron           1880 cents                            5.5 tones

September                          19 micron           1960/2010 cents                 9.5 tonnes

September                          21 micron           1835 cents                        10 tonnes

October                               21 micron           1800/1830 cents                 7 tonnes

November                           28 micron            860 cents                             2 tonnes

January 2019                     19 micron           1900 cents                            2 tonnes

February 2019                    21 micron           1800 cents                            5 tonnes

June 2019                            21 micron           1700 cents                            5 tonnes

Total 75.5 tons

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