The latest Seasonal Climate Outlook released by the Bureau of Meteorology this morning points to a neutral rainfall outlook for most of the country for the next three months.
The outlook says the El Nino pattern is strengthening, but may not have the same impact on our rainfall and temperature forecasts as previous El Nino patterns have (see video above for further explanation).
However, drier conditions are favoured in the tropics and far southeast, with a wetter-than-average season more likely in the west.
Warmer nights are very likely for most of Australia, along with warmer days for much of the east and the southern coastline.
The current outlook reflects the much warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean, and El Niño in the Pacific.
August to October days are likely to be warmer than average across northeastern Australia, Tasmania, and the mainland’s southern coastline. Overnight temperatures are likely to be warmer than normal for most of Australia except for the far north.
Significantly warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean and seas close to Australia are likely influencing the warmer overnight temperatures expected for much of the country.
Maximum temperature accuracy is moderate to high over most of Australia, except for a large area extending from northern WA through to western Queensland, where accuracy is low to very low. Minimum temperature accuracy is low to moderate over the northern half of Australia, SA and Tasmania, but low to very low elsewhere.
Northern rainfall onset outlook issued 30 July 2015
Meanwhile, The Bureau’s northern rainfall onset outlook which provides guidance on rainfall timing within the first months of the Australian northern wet season, suggests an early onset is likely across central parts; while a later onset is likely in west and north.
The latest report shows increased chances of an early rainfall onset over central parts of the Northern Territory and western Queensland.
Over the far north and Western Australia, the northern rainfall onset is likely to be later than normal.